by Steve Freed,
Month end. Grains are mixed. SN is up 3 cents and near 8.41. CN is unchanged and near 3.14. WN is down 4 cents and near 5.12. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher.
May grain deliveries were 0 soybeans, 22 soymeal, 1,466 soyoil, 223 corn and 0 Chicago wheat.
Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 700-1,200 mt. Soybeans sales are estimated near 700-1,200 mt. Wheat export sales are estimated near 100-300 mt.
US Midwest 6-10 day calls for below normal temps and normal rains. US 8-14 day forecast calls for cooler temps and normal rains. US south plains will be warm and dry. Europe and Black Sea area could see scattered rains.
Brazil exported 9 mmt of soybeans to China in April. US shipped less than 300 mt. Ongoing lack of China buying US offers resistance to soybean futures. Drop in US soybean export demand to China could add to final US 2019/20 soybean carryout. China soybean futures made new contract highs. On Wednesday, US Soybean futures and soyoil were supported by Crude oil rally.
Corn futures made new lows but bounced late after the ethanol report and higher Crude oil prices. US farmer looks to increase cash sales on rallies. US weather is favorable for US 2020 corn crop. Drop in US domestic demand is expected to increase carryout and send prices lower. Ukraine est total 2020 grain drop near 60 mmt. This suggest a corn crop near 26 mt versus 35 last year. Most feel this est is too low.
Chicago wheat futures are near 6 week lows. KC is near 4 week lows. Minn wheat made new contract lows. Rain in Europe and west Ukraine continues to weigh on prices. S Russia is forecasted to see needed rains next week. New crop 2021 Australia wheat prices are a steep discount to old crop due to better weather and near 11 month lows.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 6,000 SRW wheat contracts, bought 5,000 corn, bought 4,000 soybeans, even soymeal and 3,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed funds were net long 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 176,000 Corn; net short 6,000 Soybeans; net short 10,000 Soymeal and net short 10,000 Soyoil.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.