Mixed Signals for Ivory Coast Cocoa Crop

COCOA

December Cocoa was higher overnight as it attempted a second leg up from the October 13 lows. The market is also drawing support from some private analysts’ reports that have turned less optimistic towards the main crop production this year. Ivory Coast port arrivals totaled 90,000 metric tons for the week ended November 2, up from 82,000 the previous week and 80,000 a year ago. This was the largest total for this week of the marketing year in at least five years and was well above the five year average for that date. Perhaps the trade will view this as evidence that main crop production is picking up and that it bodes well for the season. On the other hand, one week does not a season make. Cumulative arrivals for the 2025/26 marketing year (which began on October 1) have reached 304,000 tons, down from 365,000 at this point last year and below the five-year average of 363,600. World Weather Inc. says satellite and surface weather observations suggested rain fell across portions of west-central Africa cocoa areas over the weekend. Most of the rain was light with a few pockets of moderate thunderstorms. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected through the next week to ten days from southern Ivory Coast through southern Ghana and Nigeria to Cameroon. Most of the rain will be light to moderate with short term bouts of heavier rainfall. The precipitation should be welcome and good for late season crop development.

COFFEE

December Coffee extended last week’s rally overnight and traded to its highest level since October 24, which was the day after the market put in a contract high. A report from Reuters last week saying that US roasters are “plowing through their stockpiles” of coffee presented even more urgency that the US and Brazil find a way to get the 50% on Brazilian imports into the US lifted. There was some optimism last week on news that the two sides are talking, but nothing has been announced since. In the meantime, ICE certified stocks continue to decline. Rain has reached Brazilian coffee areas, offering relief to the 2026/27 crop. World Weather Inc. says showers and thunderstorms brought needed rain to Brazil late last week and over the weekend and that they will persist in waves through the next week to ten days. The rain should slowly improve soil moisture and crop conditions. Indonesia’s exported 40,014.3 metric tons of Sumatra robusta coffee beans in September, up from 21,124.68 for the same period a year ago, according to data from the local Lampung trade office. Cumulative exports for the 2025 calendar year have reached 195,518 tons, up 117% from last year. Typhoon Kalmaegi was moving toward the central Philippines and will pass across some central coffee production areas today and tomorrow Tuesday before heading across the South China Sea toward Vietnam during mid-week. The storm may approach Vietnam as a Category 2 hurricane equivalent storm with maximum sustained wind speeds of 105 mph near its center. The storm will need to be closely monitored for possible impact on the northern Central Highlands. The heart of the Central Highlands will not be impacted by the storm, although some of the coffee areas to the north in Quang Tri and could be impacted with some heavy rain and flooding late this week and into the weekend.

SUGAR

March Sugar traded right up to the nine-day moving average overnight but backed off from that level. The market fell to a new contract low last week in the wake of somewhat bearish UNICA report, which showed Brazilian Center-South Sugar production for the first half of October was slightly above expectations. However, the market bounced on Friday as perhaps the 15% decline in three weeks was too much. One possible support factor is that the UNICA report showed that sugar’s share of the cane crush fell below 50% for the first time since April. Brazil cane crushing is running behind a year ago, but sugar production has been higher than last year because of the focus on crushing for sugar. Cumulative sugar production for their 2025/26 marketing year (April-March) is now +0.89% ahead of a year ago versus +0.87% at the end of September.

COTTON

December Cotton started out higher overnight but gave back its gains and was lower on the day later in the session. The market’s inability to push through last week’s one-month high at 66.10 was a disappointment for the bulls and likely encouraged some profit taking. Last week there were apparently rumors of the US selling some cotton to China following the conclusion of the meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi, but there has been no follow through announcement. China has bought very little cotton from the US so far this year, with the last export sales report prior to the government shutdown showing their cumulative purchases at 69,539 bales versus 461,850 for the same period last year and 1.625 million the year before that. China’s crop appears to be in decent shape given the weather reports this year, and this may limit their import needs. World Weather Inc. says frost and freezes in West Texas last week ended the growing season for some areas, but not all. Harvest weather over the coming week should be good with no precipitation expected. Limited rainfall in the Delta and southeastern states over the next couple of weeks will allow late season harvesting to advance well. Harvesting in Xinjiang, China should be winding down if it has not already ended. Late season fieldwork could linger for a little while longer. Heavy rain in India last week likely caused some damage to unharvested crops. The weather is expected to improve this week, which would allow fieldwork to resume and for some improvement to fiber quality.

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