Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up. CZ is down. WZ is down. US stocks are higher US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near $89. Gold, silver and coffee are higher. Copper and sugar are lower. Cocoa remains near season high. Higher energy and labor cost cutting into corporate profits.
Soybean futures are slightly higher. Dalian soybean, soymeal futures were lower. Palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. Trade est weekly US soybean export sales near 600-1,450 mt vs 1,783 last week. USDA est World soybean trade near 168.4 mmt vs 170.1 ly. Brazil 97.0 mmt vs 95.0 ly. US 48.7 vs 54.1 ly. China imports 100.0 mmt vs 102.0 ly. World soymeal trade is est at 69.9 mmt vs 66.7 ly. Argentina 46.3 vs 44.4, Brazil 22.0 vs 21.5 and US 13.7 vs 13.1. N/C Brazil and W Argentina are dry. S Brazil and NE Argentina are wet. Brazil and Argentina dryness could switch corn acres to beans. US August NOPA crush est at 168.0 mil bu vs 165.0 ly. SBO stocks 1.483 mil lbs vs 1,564 last month and 1,525 ly.
Corn futures dropped below key support. Dalian corn futures are higher CZ appears unable to trade over 5.00 due to high US carryout and harvest pressure while may not be able to trade below 4.70 due to competitor exporters logistic problems . Trade est weekly US corn export sales near 500-1,100 mt vs 949 last week. USDA est World corn trade near 196.2 mmt vs 181.6 ly. Brazil 55.0 mmt vs 57.0 ly. US 52.1 vs 42.3 ly. Argentina 40.5 vs 23.0 ly. Ukraine 19.5 vs 28.0 ly. Weekly US ethanol production was up 2.7 pct vs last week and up 7.9 vs ly. Stocks were down 2 pct vs last week and lowest since Dec, 2021 and down 7 pct vs ly.
Wheat futures are lower. Tuesday rally linked to increase Black Sea tension. Australia futures are higher. Dry weather continues. Argentina dropped wheat crop to 15.0 mmt vs 15.6 previous and USDA 16.5. Globally, divergence between hi pro wheat and feed is record high. Market carry is also record wide with nearby cheap and deferred higher. Appears Russia will continue to average record monthly wheat exports near 5.0 mmt. Ukraine wheat exports are half of last year. Trade est weekly US wheat export sales near 250-600 mt vs 370 last week. USDA est World wheat trade near 207.3 mmt vs 218.9 ly. Russia 49.0 mmt vs 46.0 ly. EU 37.5 vs 35.0 ly. Canada 23.0 vs 35.0. Australia 21.5 vs 32.5. US 19.0 vs 20.6 ly. Ukraine 11.0 vs 18.8 ly. Argentina 11.5 vs 4.5 ly.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
