Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2025
December 22, 2025
CRUDE OIL
February Crude Oil was higher early Tuesday, extending Monday’s bounce and traded back near last week’s highs. The market is also back at the 50-day moving average, which it has tested several times over the past two weeks. The market is assessing the repercussions of the Maduro raid over the weekend. For the moment the Trump administration appears to be working with the current President and other senior officials from the Maduro government. In the meantime, the main opposition leader, Maria Corina Merchado, has praised the US action and has vowed to return home and push for a free election. Analyst assessments have suggested that Venezuela could boost their output by 300,000-500,000 barrels per day in the next year, but a lifting of the US blockade could boost global supply sooner than that.
PRODUCTS
February RBOB was higher early Tuesday, following a bounce off eight-month lows on Monday. As in crude oil, the market found buyers after a knee-jerk selloff on the possibility of increased supply in the wake of the Maduro raid. (The US already allows some Venezuelan exports of crude to the US, as their heavy crude is well-suited for US refineries.) However, expanding production in a substantial way will take time, and the government of Venezuela will need to be stabilized. February ULSD was lower overnight. Warm weather in the US limits heating needs.
NATURAL GAS
March Natural Gas extended Monday’s selloff slightly early Tuesday, making a new low for the move. World Weather Inc. says the U.S. will see much warmer than normal temperatures overall during the next two weeks and that heating fuel demand will be well below normal overall, with the next several days being the warmest. The 6-10 and 8-14-day forecasts look a little less warm than they did yesterday, with some below normal temperatures showing up in the deep south in the 6-10-day and normal temps covering most of the eastern half in the 8-14-day. Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were higher on Tuesday with cooler weather than previously forecast expected over the next few days.
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