March Cotton Firms on Export Sales

COTTON

March Cotton was sharply higher early Tuesday and managed to push above the 50-day moving average after testing that level last week. Monday’s export sales report showed US cotton export sales for the week ending December 25 at 133,996 bales for the 2025/26 (current) marketing year and 2,208 for 2026/27 for a total of 136,204. This was down from 183,560 the previous week and 319,649 the week before that. However, the fact that sales were still above 100,000 may have emboldened the bulls. Cumulative sales for 2025/26 have reached 6.500 million bales, which is  the lowest in 11 years, and sales have reached just 58% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 75% for this point in the marketing year. This suggests the USDA is likely to lower its forecast in upcoming reports now that the data is up to date after the delays from the government shutdown. But having two reports above 300,000 since mid-November may have improved trader expectations. The largest buyer that week was Vietnam at 72,226 bales, followed by Pakistan at 14,734, Costa Rica at 12,020, China at 10,429, and Turkey at 10,293. Vietnam has the most commitments for 2025/26 at 2.070 million bales, followed by Pakistan at 688,000, Turkey at 575,600, and Mexico at 534,100.

COFFEE

March Coffee was higher early Tuesday, reaching its highest level since December 15. London robusta prices were lower overnight but inside Monday’s range, perhaps still under some pressure from the strong exports reported from Vietnam and Indonesia over the weekend. Belligerent comments from President Trump and Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro over the past couple of days may be lending support to NY (arabica) prices, as Colombia is the US’ second largest supplier of arabica coffee. This debate goes back several months, but the capture of Maduro over the weekend has brought it to the forefront. In the meantime, weather in Brazil and other arabica producers looks benign. Indonesia may still see some flooding rains. ICE certified arabica stocks were unchanged on Monday at 452,906 bags. Monday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net buyers of 720 contracts of coffee for the week ending December 30, increasing their net long to 29,006. This is not a burdensome net long when compared to the record net long of 68,000 from March 2024.

COCOA

March Cocoa is still chopping around inside of the range of the past three weeks. The slowdown in Ivory Coast arrivals has provided support, but the unseasonal rains in West Africa may benefit production later in the season. Ivory Coast farmers interviewed by Reuters on  Monday said that the rains last week are expected to help the October-to-March main crop finish strongly. Fourth-quarter grind data for Europe, Asia and North America is due out January 15. ICE cocoa stocks increased by 11,039 bags on Monday at 1.642 million bags, the highest since December 18. Monday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net buyers of 1,556 contracts of cocoa for the week ending December 30, reducing their net short to 3,619. This is close to a flat position. Traders will be watching to see if fund buying emerges with the inclusion of cocoa in the Bloomberg Commodity Index.

SUGAR

March Sugar was lower early Tuesday,  but it remained inside the range of the previous two sessions. The large global surplus predicted for 2025/26 weighs on the market, despite what appears to be a trend towards ethanol production that could limit the expansion of sugar supply. The trade is waiting for some indication on Indian exports. The government has allowed producers to export 1.5 million metric tons this year, but reports last month indicated their exports were nil because world prices were below domestic prices. There were some suggestions that that could change in the new year. We expect the UNICA update for Center-South Brazil cane crush and sugar production during the first half of December to be released this week. The last report showed that cumulative production for 2025/26 was running about 1.1% above a year ago. Sugar’s share of crush for the second half of November was 35.5% versus 44.6% for the same period in 2024.

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