Many Unknowns Has Grains Mixed

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed. SN is up 16 cents and near 16.56. SX is near 14.97. SMN is near 420.4. BON is near 82.42. CN is up 3 cents and near 7.98. CZ is near 7.40. WN is up 20 cents and near 10.97. KWN is up 20 cents and near 11.43. MWN is up 17 cents and near 11.94.

US stocks are lower after yesterday’s sharp gains. Crude is higher and near $109. US Dollar is higher.

China is back from holiday. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil are lower. China PMI down to 36 vs 42 previous. This raises concern about their economic growth.

Key USDA report is May 12. US Midwest 7 day forecast is wet. Following week could be warmer and drier. US north plains and east Canada prairie forecast is wet. C Brazil, Argentina and EU are dry.

Soybean futures are higher and traded over the 50 DMA overnight. There are many unknowns. First is the Ukraine war and increase Russian sanctions and impact on energy prices. Second is China demand. Will they buy US new crop soybeans since Brazil will be out of the export market August 1. Third is USDA May report. Will they raise US demand and lower US 2021/22 carryout? What will be their guess for US 2022/23 crop and carryout. Soyoil and palmoil may be under pressure on news Indonesia may end potential ban of palmoil exports.

Corn futures are higher. There are many unknowns. First is the Ukraine war and Ukraine corn exports. Second is China and World demand for US corn. Third is USDA May report. Will they raise US demand and lower US 2021/22 carryout? What will be their guess for US 2022/23 crop and carryout. Will US farmers begin to planting corn next week?

Wheat futures are higher. There are many unknowns. First is talk of India wheat export ban. There is also concern about dryness in Pakistan and Bangladesh and they may be wheat importers. Second is higher Matif wheat futures and dry EU weather. Third is USDA May report. Will they lower US export demand and raise US 2021/22 carryout? What will be their guess for US 2022/23 crop and carryout. Finally will wet US north plains and east Canada prairies lower their 2022 HRS supplies. Will forecast of warmer and drier US south plains forecast lower US 2022 HRW crop?

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