Macroeconomics: The Week Ahead: 8-12 December 2025

Week Ahead – Preview

• Central bank meetings the focal points: Fed, Bank of Canada, Australia RBA, SNB, Brazil BCB, Turkey TCMB
• USA: Fed expected to cut 25 bps, but plenty of dissent, also plenty of chatter about announcing ‘(Not) QE’ purchases of T-Bills (would be blatant debt monetization effectively); also keep watch on comments related to Bessent talking about vetoing dissents against easier policy by regional Fed presidents (a huge legal minefield within Fed regulatory set up)
• USA: also digesting ‘National Security Strategy’ document which revives ‘Monroe doctrine’ of isolationism, slams Europe, also offers very little to key allies, but was also largely welcomed by Russia’s Kremlin
• USA: catch up data: JOLTS (Oct), ECI (Q3), Trade Balance (Sep)
• Japan: downward revision to Q3 GDP already anticipated by BoJ, wages mixed but also historical, 2026 settlements key; not a block to 25 bps rate hike next week (that also has Q4 BoJ Tankan survey); also keep an eye out for FX intervention (despite more stable JPY)
• China: Trade data mixed, Exports holding up to RoW, down sharply vs USA; Imports sluggish, commodity import changes reflect prices and continued build of oil inventories; Monetary and Credit aggregates also due
• China: Poltiburo statement on prioritizing domestic demand is encouraging, shows greater urgency, but actual actions will be the litmus test, as well as cohesiveness of measures, after protracted period of piecemeal measures
• UK: Reeves and BoE MPC testimony to parliament, also monthly GDP and activity data, BRC Retail Sales
• Eurozone/EU: German Trade and Production, not much else; ECB in ‘purdah’ ahead of next week’s policy meeting; primary focus on dire state of national politics in many countries, lack of agreement on measures to support Ukraine, let alone urgently needed reforms to EU; Wednesday to see publication of watered-down environmental regulations
• Canada: BoC to hold, may well shift to neutral bias, after solid Q3 GDP and strong Nov labour data
• Australia: RBA to hold rates at 3.60%, all eyes on any discussion about rate hikes in 2026; Unemployment data to be published on Thursday (after RBA meeting)
• Switzerland: SNB expected to hold rates at zero, but revise down CPI forecasts for 2026, likely to hint at possibility of negative rates, but suggest high bar, above all due to risk of damage to Swiss banking sector
• EM: Turkey TCMB to cut rates a further 100 bps cut; Brazil BCB seen holding, but may open door to rate cuts given fall in inflation