Macroeconomics: The Week Ahead: 3 to 7 November 2025

Events:

* Monday: ‘The Naked Short Club’ with Dr Stu at 21:00 GMT on Resonance FM: “Risk, Reward & Uncertain Times… Expert Talk about Markets, the Economy, Alternative Investments, Tech VC, AI & Other Agents of Change”

…. and if you are attending, I look forward to meeting up at the following conferences:

* Tuesday: CDM Media “The Future of Finance: CFO Flagship UK Summit 2025” – Royal Garden Hotel, London 

* Thursday: TFG Geneva: “Challenges and Opportunities within Trade & Commodities” 

Week Ahead: Data & Events – Preview & Highlights

– BoE MPC & Australia RBA head busy run of central bank policy meetings, including Brazil (u/c), Czechia (u/c), Mexico (25 bps cut to 4.25%), Norway (u/c), Poland (25 bps cut to 4.25%) & Sweden (u/c).

– BoE knife-edge rate vote: consensus looks for no change at 4.0%, but governor Bailey may again cast swing vote for 25 bps cut, even if looming 26 November Budget may stay BoE’s hand until December. Australia RBA on hold after rebound in Q3 CPI.

– US govt in shutdown, likely to be a new record in time terms if extended until Wednesday, still no sign of compromise. US Supreme Court to hear arguments on legality of ca. 60% of US trade tariffs.

– US Election Day on Tuesday: key votes in NY (Mayor), New Jersey & Virginia (governor), California (re-districting) – likely to offer signals on next year’s mid-term elections.

– US/China trade ‘truce’: still awaiting more details, many US announcements about what was agreed, not all confirmed by China comments – as ever a lot of ambiguity, and some ongoing tense, even hostile comments from both sides.

– Data: no US payrolls or JOLTS Job Openings, leaving focus on ADP; China Trade; World Manufacturing & Services PMIs; German Orders, Production & Trade; Japan Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending; Canada Unemployment & Wages.

– OPEC+ meeting on December production set to approve further 137K increase, but many countries outside of Saudi Arabia & UAE do not have spare capacity to increase output.

– Slew of major commodity & energy conferences: ADIPEC Energy (Abu Dhabi), UN COP30 Climate (Brazil), China Import Expo (Shanghai), Asia-Pacific Agri-Food Innovation Summit (Singapore), Geneva Commodities Week, International Rare Earths Conference (Malaysia).

– Plenty of heavyweight commodity, energy & shipping earnings: ADM, AP Moller-Maersk, Aramco, ArcelorMittal, Barry Callebaut, BP, Canadian Natural Resources, Codelco, ConocoPhillips, Marathon Petroleum, Mitsubishi Corp, Mitsui & Co, Petrobras, Rheinmetall, Saudi Basic Industries.

– Busy week for Eurozone govt bond auctions (EU, Germany, France, Spain & Austria), but no coupon supply in the USA, 10-yr in Japan.

– There are 136 S&P 500 companies reporting this week, and there is a busy run of reports across the world, with highlights as compiled by Bloomberg News likely to include: Acwa Power, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, ADM, Aflac, Ahold Delhaize, Air Products & Chemicals, Airbnb, Ajinomoto, Allstate, Amadeus IT, AMD, Ameren, AIG, Amgen, AP Moller-Maersk, Apollo Global Management, AppLovin, Aramco aka Saudi Arabian Oil, ArcelorMittal, Ares Management, Arista Networks, ARM Holdings, Astera Labs, AstraZeneca, Atmos Energy, Axon Enterprise, Bajaj Auto, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, BMW, Becton Dickinson, BeOne Medicines, Bharti Airtel, BioNTech, Block, BP, Broadridge Financial Solutions, Brookfield Asset Management, Cameco, Canadian Natural Resources, Cencora, Chunghwa Telecom, Commerzbank, ConocoPhillips, Consolidated Edison, Constellation Energy, Constellation Software Canada, Corteva, Coupang, CRH, Cummins, Daikin Industries, Daimler Truck, Datadog, DBS Group, Deutsche Post, Diamondback Energy, DoorDash, Duke Energy, DuPont de Nemours, Eaton, Emerson Electric, Enbridge, Energy Transfer, Engie, EOG Resources, Eversource Energy, Exelon, Expedia Group, Fair Isaac, Fairfax Financial, Ferrari, Fidelity National Information Services, Figma, Fortinet, Fortis Canada, Franco-Nevada, Fresenius SE, Fujifilm, Fujikura, Geberit, Great-West Lifeco, Grupo Financiero Banorte, Hanwha Aerospace, HD Hyundai Heavy, Henkel, Honda Motor, Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing, Humana, Idexx Laboratories, Intact Financial, International Consolidated Airlines Group, Iron Mountain, Itau Unibanco, Itochu, Johnson Controls International, KDDI, Kinross Gold, KKR, Legrand, Leonardo, Life Insurance Corp of India, Live Nation Entertainment, Macquarie, Mahindra & Mahindra, Marathon Petroleum, Marriott International, Martin Marietta Materials, Marubeni, McDonald’s, McKesson, MetLife, Mettler-Toledo International, Microchip Technology, Mitsubishi Corp,  Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Mitsui & Co, Mitsui Fudosan, MPLX, National Australia Bank, National Grid, Naver, Nintendo, Novo Nordisk, Novonesis Novozymes B, NRG Energy, NTT, Nutrien, OCBC, OTP Bank Nyrt, Palantir Technologies, Parker-Hannifin, Petrobras, Pfizer, Philips, Power Grid Corp of India, PKO Bank Polski, PPL, Public Service Enterprise Group, Qualcomm, Realty Income, Recruit, Rheinmetall, Robinhood Markets, Rockwell Automation, Ryanair, Sampo, Sandisk, Saudi Basic, Saudi Telecom, Sempra, Shopify, Siemens Healthineers, Simon Property Group, SoftBank, Spotify Technology, State Bank of India, Sun Life Financial, Sun Pharmaceutical, Suncor Energy, Super Micro Computer, Suzuki Motor, Swisscom, Take-Two Interactive Software, Targa Resources, TC Energy, Telefonica, Thomson Reuters, Titan, Tko Group, Toyota Motor, Trade Desk, Uber Technologies, United Overseas Bank, Veolia Environnement, Verbund, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Vistra, Vonovia, Warner Bros Discovery, Westpac Banking, Wheaton Precious Metals, Williams, WSP Global, Yum! Brands & Zoetis.