Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
Macroeconomics: The Week Ahead: 28 November – 2 December
- November 28, 2022
- Marc Ostwald
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Written by Marc Ostwald, ADMISI’s Global Strategist & Chief Economist
The Week Ahead – Preview:
The new week brings month end, a deluge of US data (Payrolls first and foremost, Consumer Confidence, PCE/Personal Income, House Prices, Pending Home Sales, revised Q3 GDP, Auto Sales & Construction Spending), Manufacturing PMIs/ISM; China NBS PMIs, Eurozone & national CPI, Japan, Brazil and India Q3 GDP, Australia Q3 CPI, and Canada labour data. The Fed publishes its Beige Book and there are again plenty of central bank speakers, with Fed’s Powell speech at the Brookings Institution on Wednesday front and centre, above all given some divergence in messaging from Fed speakers in the past fortnight, and as markets focus in on the December rate decision.
China’s Covid outbreak and mounting civil protests against lockdown measures, labour unrest (strikes) in the UK, EU and parts of Asia, Russia’s barbaric destruction of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, anecdotal evidence suggesting a very sharp cold snap at the start of December in Europe, chatter ahead of the December 4 OPEC meeting, and a very fragile UK government will continue to provide the overarching themes. As previously noted, and as has been all too evident in a number of markets, above all energy, market liquidity conditions remain poor, and therefore bouts of spikey volatility will continue to be likely.
In the commodity space, the UN FAO publishes its monthly Food Price Index, but the focus will be on oil markets, which for the time being are fixated on weak demand, and dismissing low inventories, above all given some improvement in terms of diesel stocks.
A quieter week for corporate earnings is headlined by Canadian Banks, and will also have retailer reports on Black Friday and Cyber Monday demand, with Bloomberg News highlighting the following in terms of earnings: Crowdstrike, Dollar General, Hormel Foods, Intuit, Kroger, Marvell Technology, Pinduoduo, Salesforce, Snowflake, Synopsys, Veeva Systems and Workday.
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