Macroeconomics: The Week Ahead: 27 to 31 January 2025

Written by Marc Ostwald, ADMISI’s Global Strategist & Chief Economist

The Week Ahead – Summary preview:  (with apologies for the delay in publication due to technical issues over the weekend)
  
The week brings the Chinese/Lunar New Year holidays with much of East Asia closed as from Tuesday, as well as month end. It also has Fed (no change), ECB (25 bps cut), Riksbank (25 bps cut), Bank of Canada (25 bps cut), SARB (25 bps cut) and Brazil COPOM ( 100 bps hike) policy meetings, and a busy run of statistics that includes advance Q4 GDP from the US and major Eurozone economies; US Personal Income & PCE, Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods Orders; and CPI in Australia, Japan (Tokyo), France, Germany and Spain. The pace of Q4 corporate earnings reports picks up, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies reporting, but the overnight reaction to news that China’s DeepSeek AI model, built with open-source technology on less advanced chips, is more cost effective raises a lot of questions about US dominance and exceptionalism in the AI supply chain, and will put even more focus on earnings report this week from Apple, Meta and Microsoft, all of whom are expected to report a slower pace of sales. Trump administration policy moves will obviously remain a key focal point, as will his reaction to the anticipated no change from the FOMC, after Trump called for rates to be cut last week.

GDP data are expected to show the US slowing modestly to 2.7% SAAR (0.7% q/q), Spain to lead the way in the Eurozone at 0.6% q/q followed by Italy at 0.2% q/q, while France is seen flat q/q and Germany down -0.1% q/q. Inflation readings are expected to show US PCE deflator up 0.3% m/m edging up 0.1 ppt to 2.5% y/y, with core up 0.2% m/m for an unchanged 2.8%, while German and Spanish HICP are forecast to be unchanged at 2.8% y/y, and France to edge up 0.1 ppt to 1.9%. The setback in the China NBS PMIs overnight were very disappointing – Manufacturing 49.1 (-1.0), Services 50.2 (-2.0), Steel 43.3 (-4.2) and Construction 45.1 (-3.1), perhaps reflecting anticipation of US tariffs that have not yet materialized, but also showing slow uptake of stimulus package subsidies.

– There are 103 S&P 500 companies reporting this week, with worldwide corporate earnings highlights as compiled by Bloomberg News likely to include: ABB, AbbVie, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Advantest, Altria Group, Ameriprise Financial, Aon, Apple, Arthur J. Gallagher, ASML, AT&T, Atlas Copco, Atlassian, Automatic Data Processing, Bajaj Auto, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Baker Hughes, BBVA, Blackstone, Boeing, Broadridge Financial Solutions, Brown & Brown, CaixaBank, Canadian National Railway, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, Canon, Cardinal Health, Caterpillar, Charter Communications, Chevron, Christian Dior, Chubb, Chugai Pharmaceutical, Church & Dwight, Cigna Group, Coal India, Colgate-Palmolive, Comcast, Corning, Daiichi Sankyo, Danaher, Deckers Outdoor, Denso, Deutsche Bank, Dover, Dow, Eaton, Exxon Mobil, Fanuc, Fujitsu, General Dynamics, General Motors, Hartford Financial Services, Hess, Hexagon, Hitachi, ICICI Bank, Imperial Oil, Intel, IBM, Keyence, Kimberly-Clark, KLA, Komatsu, Kone, L3Harris Technologies, Lam Research, Larsen & Toubro, Lockheed Martin, Lonza Group, LPL Financial, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, LyondellBasell, Marsh & McLennan, Maruti Suzuki India, Mastercard, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, MSCI, Nasdaq, Nokia, Nordea Bank, Norfolk Southern, Northrop Grumman, Novartis, Nucor, NVR, Oil & Natural Gas, Oriental Land, Otis Worldwide, Paccar, Phillips 66, PPG Industries, Raymond James Financial, ResMed, Roche, Roper Technologies, Royal Caribbean Cruises, RTX, Sanofi, SAP, ServiceNow, Shell, Sherwin-Williams, Shin-Etsu Chemical, SE Banken, Starbucks, Stryker, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Sun Pharmaceutical, Synchrony Financial, Sysco, T-Mobile US, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Tata Motors, Tesla, Teva Pharmaceutical, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Tractor Supply, Trane Technologies, United Rentals, Valero Energy, Visa, Volvo, Waste Management, WW Grainger.

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