Macroeconomics: The Week Ahead: 17 to 21 November 2025

Week Ahead: Data & Events – Preview & Highlights

The new week has a relatively busy schedule of data, with the catch-up on US September labour data scheduled for Thursday and likely accompanied by a drip feed of other (‘stale’) reports, with G7 / India flash PMIs, UK & Canada CPI and Retail Sales, Japan Q3 GDP and Australian Wages also on the slate. But with more and more questions being asked about the tech sector, the Nvidia Q3 earnings on Wednesday may steal the show, with major US retailers (Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe’s & Target i.a.), and China’s Baidu and Xiaomi also reporting. Markets also have the latest US reversals on agricultural tariffs announced late Friday to consider, with the commodities sector also looking to the IGC monthly Grains report, Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board and other mostly energy related conferences, and the scheduled conclusion of the UN’s COP30 conference. Politics will continue to be the primary populator of ‘left field’ events, with rising tensions between China and Japan being the latest addition to the long list of trade and security tensions, widespread scepticism about government policies in most developed world countries, the war in Ukraine and a very fragile ceasefire in Gaza.

The minutes of the US October FOMC meeting are likely to highlight already well-documented resistance to the rate cut at that meeting from many non-voters, and even broader resistance to further rate cuts, given elevated inflation and much less concern about the health of the labour market, and relatively resilient growth (leaving aside the obvious impact of the govt shutdown). China’s Loan Prime Rate fixings and the Bank Indonesia policy meeting are expected to see rates left unchanged, with a further 25 bps rate cut seen in South Africa and a 100 bps cut in Egypt. The minutes of the November RBA meeting will likely confirm little prospect of further rate cuts in the near term, primarily due to the upturn in Q3 CPI.

A healthy dose of scepticism and caution will need to be applied to the catch up on all US data, and it will take a while before any real sense of underlying trends will emerge, both given likely reliability issues and the impact of the shutdown. September Payrolls are forecast to edge up to 50K, with the Unemployment Rate seen unchanged at 4.3%. In the UK, CPI is forecast to rise 0.4% m/m, but thanks to household energy price base effects (with this year’s rise of 1.0% much lower than last year’s 9.0%), the y/y rate is set to drop to 3.5% from 3.8%, with a more modest 0.1 ppt fall  projected for Core CPI (3.4%) and Services (4.6%), both PPI Input and Output are likely to be little changed in m/m and y/y terms. Following a robust run of increases in Q3 (0.5% to 0.6% m/m), UK headline Retail Sales are expected to dip -0.2% m/m, with the ex-Auto Fuel measure seen at -0.5% m/m, with the accompanying PSNB set to ease to £15.0 Bln (the last monthly data ahead of the much anticipated and debated 2026 Budget on November 26). Canada’s CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% m/m, but base effects (energy, fuel and housing) will push headline y/y down to 2.1% from 2.4% and help ease core CPI measures to a still elevated 3.0%, per see signalling a more protracted period of BoC rates being on hold. Canada’s less than timely Retail Sales are expected to see a reactive correction of -0.7% m/m after jumping 1.0% m/m in August. Australia’s Q3 Wage Price Index is anticipated to be unchanged at 0.8% q/q 3.4% y/y.  Japan’s overnight Q3 GDP showed a smaller than expected -0.3% q/q, thanks to unexpected strength (1.0% q/q) in Business CapEx, with headwinds from exports and a pullback in housing investment accounting for much of the fall. The data does on balance support the case for the supplementary budget proposed by the new Takaichi government, but ultimately judgement on the fiscal package will hinge on the extent of any extra borrowing, as well as govt pressure on the BoJ to delay a much needed and already delayed additional rate hike.

There are 13 S&P 500 companies reporting this week, with worldwide corporate earnings highlights as compiled by Bloomberg News likely to include: Baidu, Bank Hapoalim BM, Bank Leumi Le-Israel BM, CTBC Financial Holding, Futu Holdings, Home Depot, Imperial Brands, Intuit, Kuaishou Technology, Lowe’s, Medtronic, MS&AD Insurance, NetEase, Nvidia, Orlen, Palo Alto Networks, Ross Stores, Sompo, Target, TJX, Tokio Marine, Trip Group, Veeva Systems, Viking, Walmart, Xiaomi.