Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2025
December 22, 2025
Written by Marc Ostwald, ADMISI’s Global Strategist & Chief Economist
The Week Ahead – Preview:
The new week’s statistical schedule is relatively busy, though not onerous, with the focus on US CPI, Fed Beige Book, China Trade and Credit Aggregates, UK monthly GDP and activity indicators, preliminary German 2025 GDP and India CPI. The usual run of money centre banks gets the US Q4 earnings underway, with Taiwan’s TSMC and Q4 trading updates from the likes of BP, Repsol, and TotalEnergies also in view. There are a good number of central bank speakers, though with the Fed on hold in the near term, and the ECB likely to hold rates for much of 2026, there may not be much for markets to react to, with the Bank of Korea expected to hold rates at this week’s policy meeting.
A busy run of monthly reports tops the commodities agenda: EIA STEO and OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, USDA WASDE, China CASDE and Brazil CONAB S&D reports, accompanied by Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week and Saudi Arabia’s Future Minerals Forum. Politics will also remain front and centre, above all Venezuela and an increasing tussle about Greenland between the US and EU, which also increasingly makes any prospect of a peace agreement for Ukraine unlikely (leaving aside Russia’s lack of interest).
The US administration is also going all out to implement a broad array of short-term measures to bring down inflation, i.e. cost of living concerns, primarily to improve Republican prospects at the mid-term elections. Many of these are ante-diluvian (‘après nous le deluge’), i.e. likely to be a case of short-term gain leading to long-term as measures unwind – be that MBS purchases, bans on investment fund purchases of single family homes, and to a lesser extent, US selling Venezuelan Oil. Friday did not see the speculated release of the US Supreme Court on Tariffs, but it may well release further opinions in the next fortnight.
USA: Much of the week’s run of US statistics are ‘old’ catch-up reports for things like Retail Sales, PPI, New Home Sales, leaving the primary focus on Tuesday’s CPI and Friday’s Industrial Production. The distortions from the lack of an October CPI report render yr/yr readings largely meaningless, until they are unwound over coming months, with forecasters looking for an elevated 0.3% m/m rise for both headline and core, on the back of tariff pass through effects. One yr/yr element of CPI requires particular attention, namely the surge in electricity prices which hit 6.9% in November vs. 5.1% in December, with upward pressure from data centres playing a key role – a perhaps small reminder that gasoline prices are not the be all and end all of consumer energy inflation concerns
China: Trade data are expected to sustain their recent pattern, with export growth forecast to slow to 3.0% from November’s 5.9%, as a sharp decline in US exports is offset by strength in Asia, EU and African exports (see chart), while Imports are seen expanding only marginally at 0.9% y/y (vs. Nov 1.9%), with domestic demand remain sluggish. Much slower growth in central and local government, and to a lesser extent corporate borrowing, will likely see Aggregate Social Financing to CNY 1.85 Trln, offset in part by a typical though modest end of quarter bump higher in New Yuan Loans to CNY 800 Bln. As previously noted, the authorities appear to be in no hurry to implement extra stimulus, though some greater urgency may emerge as this year’s later Lunar New Year holidays (starting 17 February) approaches.
UK: November monthly GDP is seen reversing October’s dip with a rise of 0.1% m/m, leaving Sept-Nov GDP at -0.2% q/q, with a 0.2% m/m rebound in the Index of Services and a 0.4% m/m rise in Manufacturing Output, offsetting weak Utilities and Construction Output. It remains to be seen if December saw any post-Budget improvement, with this week’s BRC Retail Sales likely to be subdued if anecdotal evidence is any guide, while the RICS House Price Balance is seen unchanged at a lowly -16.
There are 14 S&P 500 companies reporting this week, with worldwide corporate earnings highlights as compiled by Bloomberg News likely to include: Avenue Supermarts, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Blackrock, Citigroup, Delta Air Lines, Goldman Sachs, HCL Technologies, Infosys, JPMorgan Chase, M&T Bank, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial Services Group, Qatar National Bank, State Street, TSMC aka Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Tata Consultancy Services, Wells Fargo.
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