Macroeconomics: The Week Ahead: 10 to 14 November 2025

Week Ahead: Data & Events – Preview & Highlights

 Markets find themselves confronted by a complex interface of concern about valuations, a realization that there is a limit to how much and how long one can ride roughshod national and geopolitical risk, above all given the record US government shutdown, absence of US economic data, and some cold hard truths about the US China ‘trade Truce’. The nearly complete S&P 500 Q3 earnings season (91% complete) has thus far seen earnings rise 13.1% against an estimate of 7.9% on 30 September, indubitably impressive, but with the forward 12-month P/E ratio at 22.7, one can this is already discounted into valuations. Even without official data confirmation, US growth has proved to be much better than most had anticipated. But with Mag7 and other corporate investment in AI growing at multiples of revenue growth, thus forcing the likes of Meta and Alphabet to borrow tens of billions to fund investment, and by extension free cash flow sliding rapidly, there are good reasons for investors to take a more cautious stance ahead of year end, and intensify diversification in sector, asset class and geographic terms.

 The new week’s agenda is bereft of what would normally have been a busy week for US data (CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production). But it does have a busy run out of China, with Sunday’s inflation and Friday’s activity data bookending the week, and also in the UK,with labour and wages statistics on Tuesday, and provisional Q3 GDP and host of monthly activity data on Thursday. A scrappier week elsewhere has Australian Unemployment, Japan PPI and official services (‘Economy Watchers’) survey, final Eurozone CPI, Germany’s ZEW Expectations and US NFIB surveys, and inflation data from India and Brazil. There will be a very busy run of central bank speakers, while Tuesday sees various countries closed for Armistice / Remembrance / Veterans’ Day. In the commodities sector, the IEA publishes its annual World Energy Outlook, and along with the US EIA and OPEC also issues its monthly Oil Market report, while Global Grain Geneva kicks off on Tuesday and COP30 continues in Brazil; EU Finance Ministers meet to discuss the Energy Tax Directive, and Friday has an ‘EcoFin’ meeting to discuss the 2026 EU budget. The annual joint Fed / US Treasury market conference also takes place, against the backdrop of the US 3, 10 & 30-yr quarterly refunding.

– USA: in the absence of economic data, all eyes will be on Congress and whether a compromise to re-open government can be achieved, though indications thus far suggest positions remain deeply entrenched, with Republicans rejecting a watered down set of Democrat demands on an extension of Affordable Cre Act (aka ‘Obamacare’) on Friday. The October NFIB survey is expected to ease 0.3 pts to 98.5, predicated on the already published Employment sub-indices showing Hiring Intentions easing slightly, but as ever the often super volatile economic expectations index will be the driver.

– China: Sunday’s CPI and PPI data were somewhat better than expected, on a combination of holiday and base effects related easing of food CPI deflation to -2.9% from September’s -4.4% y/y, with Services CPI creeping higher to a still lowly 0.8% y/y. While the official statistics office declared that this signalled a beneficial impact from measures to combat ‘involution’, the m/m improvement is not likely to be sustained. Credit Aggregates are due sometime during the week, with an expected and seasonally driven drop in Aggregate Social Financing to CNY 1.4 Trln (vs. Sept CNY 3.5 Trln), paced mainly by government borrowing falling by around 50% m/m, and continued weakness in business and consumer credit demand, resulting in an anticipated easing in the pace of New Yuan Loans to just CNY 700 Bln (Sep CNY 1.6 Trln), in part offset by sharp bounce in corporate bond issuance over the month. Friday’s activity data are expected to echo PMIs, with Industrial Production seen slowing to 5.5% y/y from 6.5%, and Retail Sales remaining tepid at 2.9% y/y (vs. Sept 3.0%). Rather more concerning is the expected accelerated contraction of -0.8% y/y (vs. prior -0.5%) in Fixed Asset Investment (FAI), paced by a faster decline in Property Investment of -14.5% y/y (vs. prior -13.9%). Given that this would follow the unexpected drop in Exports reported last week, the pressure on Chinese authorities to fulfil some of the pledges to boost domestic consumption in the latest ‘5-year plan’ is all too obvious. There will also be some focus on this week’s annual “Singles’ Day” shopping event.

– U.K.: All eyes remain on the November 26 budget, and a now seemingly inevitable hike in Income Taxes that could well tip the economy into recession in 2026, given the already huge cost of living pressures on middle and lower income households. Be that as it may, Tuesday’s September/October labour market reports are expected to show HMRC Payrolls barely changed (-3K), though a close eye needs to be kept on private vs public sector trends, with the Unemployment Rate seen creeping higher to 4.9% (highest since March 2021). The story on wages remains that official data are not reflective of consistently much weaker trends in numerous surveys, with headline Average Weekly Earnings forecast to be unchanged at 4.0%, the ex-Bonus measure to ease to 4.6% y/y, and Private Sector ex-Bonus to drop to 4.2% y/y from 4.4%, lowest since December 2021. The consensus looks for Q3 GDP to dip to 0.2% q/ from 0.2%, leaving the y/y rate unchanged at 1.4%, and while hardly signalling a robust expansion, still far better than the ca 0.5% whole year estimate in the early part of the year. Monthly GDP is however expected to flatline after a tepid 0.1% in August, with a -0.4% m/m drop in Manufacturing Output seen offsetting a 0.1% m/m increase in the Index of Services. BRC Retail Sales, RICS House Balance and KPMG/REC survey on Employment are also scheduled for release.

– In the Eurozone, there is only the valueless German ZEW survey, outside of the final likely unrevised October readings on CPI. The EU finance ministers meeting will discuss the energy tax directive, while the Economic and Financial Affairs Council will discuss the 2026 EU budget, both meetings are likely to highlight continued deep divisions at a national level on the path going forward.

– If you are attending the Global Grain Geneva conference this week, I and other members of the ADM ISI & ADM EMEA teams look forward to seeing you there!

– There are just 6 S&P 500 companies reporting this week, with worldwide corporate earnings highlights as compiled by Bloomberg News likely to include: ABN Amro Bank, Adnoc Gas, Alcon, Allianz, Anglogold Ashanti, ANZ Group, Applied Materials, Aristocrat Leisure, Asian Paints, AST SpaceMobile, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Banco BTG Pactual, Barrick Mining, Bayer, Bridgestone, Brookfield, CEZ, Cie Financiere Richemont, Circle Internet Group, CoreWeave, Dai-ichi Life, Deutsche Telekom, Dubai Electricity & Water Authority, E.ON, EnBW,, Enel, Experian, Flutter Entertainment, Generali, Hannover Re, Hapag-Lloyd, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Infineon Technologies, Japan Post, Japan Post Bank, Japan Post Insurance, JD, KBC Group, Kioxia, Loblaw, Manulife Financial, Merck, Mitsubishi Estate, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Mizuho Financial, Munich Re, Nebius, Nu Holdings Cayman Islands, Occidental Petroleum, Oil & Natural Gas, Orix, Poste Italiane, Power Corp of Canada, PTT, Quanta Computer, Rocket Lab, RWE, Sea, Siemens, Siemens Energy, Singapore Telecommunications, SoftBank, Sony, SSE, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Swiss Re, Talanx, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Tata Steel, Tencent, Tencent Music Entertainment, Vodafone, Walt Disney.