Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 8 November

A relatively modest data calendar, which features Japan’s Household Consumption, UK KPMG/REC survey, French Q3 Wages, Brazilian inflation, Canada’s labour report and US prov. Michigan Sentiment accompanies a raft of central bank speakers to end this US election week, with the conclusion of China’s week long NPC meeting eyed for further stimulus news. The commodities space looks to the USDA monthly WASDE report, while Softbank and Sony headline corporate earnings. Next week swings the focus back to economic data with a raft of data from the US (CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, NFIB), China (Retail Sales, Industrial Production, FAI, Property data), UK (Q3 GDP, activity data, Unemployment), with Japan awaiting Q3 GDP, PPI and Economy Watchers survey, Australia looking to Q3 Wages and Unemployment. There will also be a barrage of central bank speakers, the Fed’s Q4 Loan Officers survey, as well as monthly Oil Market Report from EIA, IEA, and OPEC, and COP29 gets underway in Azerbaijan.

There may well be some market disappointment that the centrepiece of China’s post NPC announcements has been the CNY 6.0 Trln local govt debt swap, to be conducted over 3 years, but this was always going to be the focal point. Japan’s weak Household Spending data while better than expected at -1.1% y/y (vs. forecast -1.8%) follows on from the marginal increase in Real Wages reported yesterday and leaves the BoJ with an additional quandary of why higher nominal wages is having very limited impact on consumer spending, above and beyond the political uncertainty. There are also the aftermath of the Fed and BoE meetings to consider, with both offering a very cautious rate outlook and determinedly carving out some room for manoeuvre on the outlook, and by extension underlining recent market moves to reduce rate cut expectations. After an unexpectedly strong 46.7K rise in Canadian Employment last month, today’s labour report is expected to see some moderation to a still solid 27.2K, with wage growth holding at a somewhat lofty 4.5%, though the Unemployment Rate is forecast to edge up 0.1 ppt to 6.6%. US preliminary Michigan Sentiment is expected to be marginally higher at 71.0, though survey responses will not have captured reaction to the elections, which will likely be reflected in the final version in 2 weeks.