Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 8 November
- November 8, 2022
- Marc Ostwald
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- Busy looking data schedule unlikely to divert focus from US CPI and mid-term elections vigil; digesting UK BRC Retail Sales, Japan Spending & Wages, France & Taiwan Trade; awaiting US NFIB survey; plenty of BoE, ECB and SNB speakers; Nintendo & Walt Disney headline earnings run; Dutch, German and US debt auctions; France Crop estimates and US Short-term Energy Outlook
- US NFIB: setback expected on energy price rebound & rate rises; labour indicators send mixed signals; politics may provide boost
EVENTS PREVIEW
Today’s calendar of data and events looks busy, but closer inspection suggests that the run of data is unlikely to provide much in the way of inspiration for markets, with Japan Wages and Household Spending, UK BRC Retail Sales, French and Taiwanese Trade to digest ahead of the US NFIB Small Business Optimism survey. The US mid-term elections are tomorrow’s story (and likely longer, given so many tight races will result in recounts and legal challenges), while there is a busy run of BoE, ECB and SNB, but no Fed speakers, with Nintendo and Walt Disney heading up the day’s run of corporate earnings. The first of this week’s run of monthly Supply & Demand outlooks has the French Agriculture Ministry 2022 crop production estimates and the US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, the latter above all critical given seasonally very low stocks of both diesel & other oil products, and natural gas. A busier day for govt debt auctions sees the Netherlands offering 10-yr, Germany 2-yr and the US kicking off this week’s refunding with US$ 40 bln of 3-yr. Of greater note was the rush of corporate bond issuance yesterday, with US Investment grade totalling $20.6 Bln as issuers tapped better risk appetite and utilized a quieter day for Treasuries awaiting Thursday’s CPI data.
** U.S.A. – Oct NFIB survey **
The NFIB Small Business is expected to dip to 91.4 from 92.1, with the already published Employment indices showing a drop in labour demand, though a sharp rise in Net Compensation plans (32 vs 23, and a 6-mth average of 27). Much as ever depends on the key ‘Expect Better Economy’ sub index, which has been very sensitive to oil prices, and slipped to -44 in September from -42, after bouncing from June’s low of -61, though there was a notable divergence with Expect Higher Sales, which jumped to a 7-month high of -10 from -19. The survey is often distorted by political views, thus the prospect, or rather hope, that the Republicans gain control of Congress may prompt an unexpected pick-up, though this seems more likely in November if this hope is realized.
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ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
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