Written Commentary
Busier but quite heavily front loaded data run; digesting RBA hold, Australia Current Account, Tokyo and South Korea CPI, China Caixin Services PMI and UK BRC Retail Sales; US JOLTS Job Expectations, ECB Inflation Expectations, Brazil & South Africa; ECB Schnabel moves to neutral camp, Poland NBP seen on hold; UK & German auctions
Japan & South Korea CPI offer solace to BoJ & BoK, but may keep JPY and KRW on the back foot
China Services PMI: boost to orders and outlook a welcome signal, though property sector woes continue to undermine confidence
UK BRC Sales get no boost from Black Friday, cost of living pressures continue to offer major headwind
US JOLTS Job Openings: further setback expected, but series very volatile, medium term trend lower, but still far above pre-Covid peak
EVENTS PREVIEW
A much busier day for data awaits with Services PMIs/ISM featuring heavily, with the as expected no change RBA rate decision to digest along with Australia Q3 Current Account (dragging more on tomorrow’s GDP at -0.6 ppt than expected) and UK BRC Retail Sales. Ahead lie South African and Brazilian Q3 GDP, ECB Inflation Expectations survey and the first of this week’s US labour market indicators in JOLTS Job Openings. Poland’s NBP is expected to hold rates at 5.75% and likely to signal rates are on hold well into Q1, and there are a few central bank speakers, while the UK sells 10-yr Index-Linked and Germany 2-yr.
The overnight run of data offered some solace for both the Bank of Japan and Bank of Korea as inflation eased more than expected, with Japan’s core ex-Fresh Food CPI dropping close to target at 2.3% y/y, and potentially dropping below in coming months if current momentum sustained. In both cases it suggests neither central bank will look to tighten policy near term, though by extension this continues to leave both the KRW and JPY vulnerable to further weakness if sentiment on US rates were to sour again. The rise in China’s Services PM to 51.5 from 50.5 also offered some relief, with the uptick paced by a rise in new orders and an improved business outlook, but overall confidence remains fragile given ongoing property sector woes. UK BRC Retail Sales holding at 2.6% y/y highlights a lack of any boost from Black Friday Sales, as cost of living pressures continue to weigh.
** U.S.A. – Services ISM, JOLTS Job Openings **
The Services ISM survey is seen improving very marginally to 52.2 from 51.8, echoing the modest uptick seen in the flash Services PMI to 50.8 that is expected to be confirmed in the final reading, given that there has been little change in the PMI in the past few months, while the ISM has eased from a recent peak of 54.5 in August, the read across is anything but a good one. JOLTS Job Openings have been very volatile, but the longer term downtrend is very clear, with a modest setback to 9.30 Mln from 9.553 Mln expected, still above the July low of 8.92 Mln. This would also be well above the pre-Covid peak of 7.594 Mln as would the implied slip in the Openings to Unemployed ratio to 1.43 from 1.50, as compared with a pre-Covid ratio of 1.2. There will also be particular focus on the ‘quit ratio’ (last 2.3%) as easing labour demand discourages so-called ‘job churn’.
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