Written Commentary
ADM Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
August 4, 2026
Middle East conflict vies with AI/Tech earnings as key influence, focus on US JOLTS Job Openings and debut SpaceX report, though plenty of other corporate earnings.
- U.S.A.: modest JOLTS setback expected, some downside risks from Leisure/Hospitality, as ever beware of often very sharp revisions.
EVENTS PREVIEW
Developments in the Persian Gulf, Red and Black Sea conflicts continue to cast a very long shadow as they have done for a long time. In all cases, one can make a ‘hope-filled’ case in the Middle East, but the realities of the past 5 months argues for a huge amount of caution and scepticism, given that the gaps between the parties involved on a potential resolution remain very large, let alone any consideration of deep-seated mistrust. Be that as it may, there is a busier run of data to consider, including the overnight South Korea CPI and Spanish Unemployment, with the focus on US JOLTS Job Openings, which kicks off this week’s busy run of labour data, and US and Canadian Trade data also due.
The earnings schedule is busy around the world, though the focus will be on SpaceX’s debut report, with numerous investor questions from the basics of Starlink subscribers and Colossus Compute revenues to commercial rocket payload deliveries, synergies and cost burden sharing with Tesla, leaving aside speculation about an eventual mergers, but most of all SpaceX’s path to consistent profitability, particularly given the volume of resources being dedicated to Starship and space data-centres, and then what happens with the $116 Bln of shares that will be ‘unlocked’ after the report. More broadly, the focus is on the rivalry between US and China AI models, with China seemingly rapidly narrowing the gap with US rivals in terms of model capabilities, but more importantly with significantly lower costs, and thus threatening the AI related investment boom.
Otherwise, the likes of ADM, AMD, BP and a raft of second-tier US energy companies, Caterpillar, HSBC, Kimberly-Clark, Paramount Skydance and Softbank will also be among the day’s headline makers.
** U.S.A. – June JOLTS Job Openings **
The JOLTS Job Opening data have been both volatile and subject to often hefty revisions, per se making them an unreliable guide to underlying labour demand trends. That said, April and May readings were steady at 7.594 Mln and 7.585 Mln, the highest levels since November 2024, with strength in Leisure and Hospitality likely to have been driven by the World Cup and potentially tailing off in June. The risk would appear to be skewed to a miss exacerbated by downward revision(s), but unlikely to be so extreme that the series drops into the bottom half of 6.5 Mln to 7.6 Mln range of the past 12 months, i.e. in effect shifting Fed and markets focus to both pillars of the Fed’s dual mandate.
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