- US election and UK Budget cast very long shadow, busy run of US data, Alphabet earnings the focal points; digesting UK Shop Prices, Japan jobs and Swedish GDP; US JOLTS Job Openings, Consumer Confidence and House Prices; UK and German 5-yr, US 7-yr and and FRN 2-yr auctions
- U.K.: BRC Shop Prices imply some offset to household energy price hike in October CPI; anecdotal evidence imparts some upside risk to Mortgage Lending
- U.S.A.: JOLTS Job Openings expected to resume downtrend, though still at high end of pre-pandemic pace
- U.S.A.: Consumer Confidence expected to edge up; lower gasoline prices, higher mortgage rates and election uncertainty highlight divergent influences, some potential for outlier
EVENTS PREVIEW
The focus remains very squarely on next week’s US elections, but the day’s schedule will offer some distractions via way of the first of this week’s ‘Magnificent 7’ corporate earnings from Alphabet, with UK BRC Shop Prices, Japan’s labour data and Sweden’s Q3 GDP are to be digested ahead of UK Credit & Mortgage Lending aggregates, Italian Hourly Wages, the first batch of Eurozone national Q3 GDP readings and a raft of US data that includes JOLTS Job Openings and Consumer Confidence. Govt debt supply takes the form of UK and German 5-yr, US 7-yr and FRN 2-yr auctions. Aside from Alphabet, a busy run of corporate earnings also has Chalco, Jiangxi Copper and Petrochina in Asia; HSBC, Santander, BP, Novartis and OMV in Europe, while across the pond AMD, Mondelez, Pfizer and Philipps66 will be among the highlights.
** U.K. – Oct BRC Shop Prices, Sep Credit Aggregates **
– Tomorrow’s Budget will be the litmus test for UK asset prices this week, but today’s run of second division data merits some attention. BRC Shop Prices at -0.8% y/y were a a lot weaker than expected, and suggest that softer food prices and still hefty discounting in non-food retail should offer some offset to the upward pressure on October CPI from the hike in the household energy price cap. Both Consumer Credit and Mortgage Lending at £1.3 Bln and £2.8 Bln are expected to be little changed, the latter boosted by rate cut prospects, and some anecdotal evidence suggesting some upside risks, even if house price indicators imply some caution among buyers.
** U.S.A. – Oct Consumer Confidence, Sep JOLTS Job Openings **
Consumer Confidence is seen edging up to 99.3 from 98.7, boosted by
lower gasoline prices, but likely unsettled by the rise in mortgage rates, and
with the knife edge election outcome probably a negative, with the sometimes
large revisions also a consideration. But all eyes are likely to be on the
Labour Differential which fell back to 2017 levels (ignoring pandemic period
distortions) in September (see chart), though last month’s better than expected
payrolls may provide some offset to perceptions about the labour market. JOLTS
Job Openings are expected to continue to their saw tooth descent, dropping back
to 7.935 Mln from 8.04 Mln, though still above July’s cyclical low of 7.711
Mln, and still indicative of good, though ebbing labour demand, as was
highlighted in last week’s Beige Book. Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale
Inventories, FHFA & CoreLogic CS House Prices and Dallas Fed Services
survey are also on tap.
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