Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q2 2025
July 2, 2025
- US court ruling on trade tariffs to dominate sentiment short-terms, as Nvidia results and FOMC minutes are also digested; Australia Q1 CapEx, UK CBI Q2 Services and other European surveys, Canada Q2 Current Account, US Q1 GDP revision, weekly jobless claims and Pending Home Sales accompanied by raft of Fed speakers and further US retailer earnings
- US Q1 GDP seen unrevised, as likely upward revisions to Personal Consumption and Inventories offset downward revisions to Net Exports and Construction; focus already on Q2 and the rest of 2025
EVENTS PREVIEW
It’s debatable whether today’s run of data, events and more US retailer Q1 earnings will have more than passing impact, as yesterday’s US Court of International Trade ruling that tariffs via executive order exceed the President’s authority dominates discussions. Unsurprisingly the White House has confirmed it will appeal the ruling, and questioned the court’s authority, thus sustaining the dual themes of trade and geopolitical tension along with sovereign debt woes as key drivers of market sentiment. There are also the FOMC minutes, which doubled down on its ‘wait and see policy stance, and Nvidia earnings to digest, which while showing it beat sales forecasts, also highlighted that US exports curbs had cost it $2.5 Bln in Q1, with the expectation that there will be a larger $8.0 Bln ‘hit’ in the current quarter. Were it not for all of those items, perhaps there would be more chatter surrounding the wholly unsurprising departure of Elon Musk from the US administration, made inevitable by his sharp criticism about the tax and spending bill making its way through Congress. Statistically there are Australia’s Q1 CapEx (worse than expected, and set to drag on next week’s Q1 GDP, though offset by an upward revision to Q4), various Eurozone national surveys including the sharp setback in the UK CBI’s quarterly Services index, and Canada’s Q1 Current Account, which accompany the initial revision US Q1 GDP, weekly jobless claims and Pending Home Sales, along with a busy run of Fed and other central bank speakers. The Ascension Day holiday in much of Europe will thin trading volumes, as will month end.
– U.S.A.: Q1 GDP is not expected to be revised om the advance -0.3% q/q SAAR estimate, with an upward revision to Inventories and Retail Sales seen offsetting downward revisions to Trade (wider deficit) and Construction Spending. But this is already very historical as far as market impact goes, with the focus on Q2, which according to the latest Atlanta & NY Fed GDPnow estimates is tracking somewhere around 2.2%-2.4%, but will likely fluctuate sharply as data on trade and inventories unfold over the quarter.
To view the full report and to sign up for daily market commentary please email admisi@admisi.com
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
