Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q2 2025
July 2, 2025
- Nvidia earnings top otherwise light run of data and events, as geopolitics and debt concerns continues to cast a long shadow; digesting Australia CPI, French GDP and Consumer Spending, German Import Prices and Unemployment, awaiting US regional Fed surveys, debt sales in UK, Germany and USA
EVENTS PREVIEW
Nvidia’s Q1 corporate earnings will be the focal point for the day and may prove to be temporarily pivotal for equity risk appetite, though geopolitics, trade tensions and the G7 debt malaise remain the overarching themes. The statistical schedule is quite busy, but likely very localized in market impact terms. Australian monthly CPI, German Import Prices and Unemployment, French final Q1 GDP and Consumer Spending, Eurozone Inflation Expectations, and US regional Fed surveys top that schedule, with some central bank speakers and an as expected 25 bps cut from New Zealand’s RBNZ also in view. Outside of Nvidia, there are also results from Abercrombie & Fitch, Agilent Technologies, Dick’s Sporting Goods, HP, Macy’s and Salesforce in the US, and further bank earnings in Canada from Bank of Montreal and National Bank of Canada. Govt bond auctions are plentiful, with weak demand seen overnight for Japan’s 40-yr, perhaps presenting a challenge for the sales of German 13 & 15-yr, UK 8-yr, US 2-yr FRN and 5-yr T-Note ahead. As for Nvidia results, the focus will be on the extent of the beat on its Q1 earnings, but rather more on its outlook, which will be positive, but given that its share price has done a lot of the ‘heavy lifting’ for the US equity market rally since the 90 day moratorium on reciprocal tariffs, both will need to be impressive to give the rally an additional boost.
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