Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Jeff Rowe as EVP and COO
July 20, 2026
US/Iran diplomacy offers hope and relief for energy prices, but complex set of AI investment considerations leaves markets in flux with earnings in focus; digesting UK BRC Shop Prices and French Consumer Confidence, US Consumer Confidence and Goods Trade Balance ahead.
- U.S.A.: Consumer Confidence seen edging back up, focus on inflation expectations and Labour Differential.
- U.S.A: Goods Trade Balance seen narrowing, but likely to imply large net export drag on Q2 GDP, offsetting Durable Shipments strength.
EVENTS PREVIEW
Markets remain caught in a whirlpool of conflicting inputs, with diplomacy once again gaining the upper hand in the USA/Iran conflict, but as has been more than amply demonstrated over the past 4 months, it is far from assured that this will lead to a binding and lasting resolution.
The AI investment boom is increasingly challenged by more than justified concerns that circular financing in the sector may prove to be another instance of Zaitech type financial engineering that collapses in on itself as it did in Japan at the end of the 1980s, while China’s advances in chipmaking technology threaten the current AI order and US dominance within it, with this week’s run of Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft likely to be something of a watershed type moment.
Outside of NXP Semiconductors and Seagate, there is little in the way of major tech earnings, with the focus on the likes of Barclays, GSK, Mercedes-Benz, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Ford Motor, Illinois Tool Works, UPS and Visa.
Statistically, there are better than expected UK BRC Shop Prices and French Consumer Confidence to digest, with the focus ahead on US Consumer Confidence and Advance Goods Trade Balance.
** U.S.A. – June Goods Trade Balance, July Consumer Confidence **
Following on from strong core Durable Goods Orders, with core Shipments jumping 1.5% m/m, implying a stronger contribution to Q2 GDP Equipment investment, but today’s Goods Trade Balance, if wider than expected, may offset that. Consumer Confidence is projected to make a modest further recovery to 92.2 from 91.2, but the focus will likely be on Inflation Expectations, which are likely to rebound due to the jump in gasoline prices, and the Labour Differential (Jobs Plentiful minus Hard to Get), which fell to 2.4 in June, the lowest level since February 2021.
To view the full report and to sign up for daily market commentary please email admisi@admisi.com
Disclaimer:
This material is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. The views expressed reflect market conditions and publicly available information as of the date of writing and may change without notice. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider their own circumstances and, where appropriate, seek independent financial advice.
This material is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. The views expressed reflect market conditions and publicly available information as of the date of writing and may change without notice. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider their own circumstances and, where appropriate, seek independent financial advice.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2026 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
