Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
Very busy end of month rush of data has Japan CPI, Industrial Production & Retail Sales, UK Consumer & Business surveys, French and Spanish inflation to digest ahead of German CPI, India and Canada Q4 GDP, US PPI; BoE’s Pill the only scheduled central bank speaker.
- UK: surveys miss forecast as by-election result adds to pressure on PM Starmer
- India: change in base year and methodology to weigh on Q4 GDP, but strong domestic demand and output likely to offset headwinds to Net Exports from US tariffs
- Canada: Q4 GDP expected to marginally contract after strong Q3, unlikely to change steady outlook for BoC rates
- USA: PPI expected to underline most upward pressures on inflation
EVENTS PREVIEW
The week ends with a typical month end deluge of statistics, foremost among which will be the overnight Japan Tokyo CPI, Industrial Production and Retail Sales, ahead of French, German and Spanish, while India and Canada look to Q4 GDP, and the US has PPI and the Chicago PMI. The events schedule is light with BoE’s Pill the sole scheduled central bank speakers.
** Japan – Feb Tokyo CPI, Jan Industrial Production & Retail Sales **
- Tokyo CPI feel, but was above forecasts, while Industrial Production was much weaker than expected and Retail Sales better than forecast. But the BoJ rate outlook is less contingent on incoming data than the views of the Takaichi government with Finance Minister Katayama today finally pushing back on Takaichi’s reflationist rhetoric, though probably not enough to signal a turn in the JPY’s fortunes, though perhaps enough to arrest its recent decline.
** U.K. – Feb GfK Consumer Confidence & Lloyds Business Barometer **
- Coupled with the heavy defeat for both Labour and Conservatives at the Groton and Denton by-election overnight, both GfK Consumer Confidence & Lloyds Business Barometer were weaker than expected, putting a dent on the UK outlook after the run of better than expected run of ‘hard’ official data. That said, surveys in the UK and the rest of the developed world have long reflected the high level of uncertainty that remains, with official data generally better than what has been implied by surveys.
** India – Q4 GDP / GVA **
- India’s GDP will shift to a new base year of 2022-23 from the prior 2011-12, which gives additional scope for an outlier reading (risks downside), with the consensus anticipating Q4 to slow to 7.4% y/y from Q3’s very robust 8.2%, and GVA to ease to 7.3% y/y from 8.1%. The question is about the extent to which the drag on GDP from punitive US export tariffs will be offset by strong rural/agricultural output (benefitting from a strong harvest), sales tax cuts, the drop in inflation aiding domestic demand.
** U.S.A. – Jan PPI **
- PPI is expected to rise 0.3% m/m on headline and core measures, but thanks to benign base effects, this would see headline y/y drop 0.4 ppt to 2.6%, and core drop 0.3 ppt to 3.0%, however, the ‘core’ ex-Food, Energy & Trade measure is seen unchanged at a somewhat lofty 3.5% y/y. There are upside risks from airfares, but the fact that December saw unusually strong increases in goods prices, which may have pre-empted some of the annual increases normally seen in January, and a rise in Portfolio Management fees (which feed into the PCE deflators) that was higher than implied by equity market performance, imparts some downside risks.
** Canada – Q4 GDP **
- Q4 GDP is forecast to fall -0.2% q/q SAAR, after an unexpectedly strong jump of 2.6% in Q3, and also fitting with weak monthly readings for October and November, with December GDP seen edging up 0.1%, as well as BoC projections of a flat reading for the quarter. In the detail, the extent of the negative contribution from Net Exports and Inventories are likely to be the swing factors, offset by marginally positive contributions from both Personal Consumption and Business Investment and some strength in government spending.
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