Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 25 March 2026

Ambiguous and conflicting signalling about conflict maintains thick outlook fog, but also not really surprising; UK and Australia inflation, German Ifo survey to digest, US Import Prices and rash of central bank speakers ahead.
  • ECB and BoE take proactive stance on inflation risks, but probably more a  case of conditioned response to post-COVID misread, though fiscal  limitations likely also factor
  • UK and Australia CPI underline less than ideal position before impact of  Middle East hits

EVENTS PREVIEW

Ambiguous and conflicting messaging remains the main challenge for markets to navigate, though less surprising given that the US and Israel do not have the same objectives, even while acknowledging that the US objectives are unclear. Though seen through the lens of cakeism, there is a consistency to sending messages about pursuing a ceasefire / an end to hostilities to try and drive energy and other commodity prices back down, while continuing with military operations. But as they say, ‘it takes two to tango’, and the Iranian regime remains unwilling to negotiate, despite ongoing back-channel efforts by third parties like Oman and Pakistan to facilitate communication between the two sides. One must also acknowledge that some of the US messaging might be a cover to play for time to strengthen its military position in the Persian Gulf region, in effect, a coercive measure to signal that if Iran is unwilling to negotiate, then the US and Israel will escalate their attacks.
 
Be that as it may, today’s German Ifo survey was in line with forecasts, with a very predictable drop in Expectations (86.0 vs. 90.2) dragging the headline index lower to 86.4 from 88.4. Unsurprisingly, Services saw the sharpest drop (-5.1 from 0.1), though setbacks were seen in all sectors: Manufacturing at -14.3 (-2.8), Trade at -24.6 (-2.8) and above all Construction at -15.8 (-4.2) – very much echoing yesterday’s flash PMIs. Central bank messaging (above all ECB and BoE) is erring on the side of being proactive on inflation, though this probably owes less to their assessment of inflation risks and far more to the experience of misreading the post-COVID inflation pressures and being forced into a rearguard action via aggressive rate hikes. There is little doubt that this recognises that the scope for fiscal policy to limit the damage is far more limited and given the already parlous state of most developed world government finances also undesirable.
 
The day’s schedule has as expected prints for UK and Australian CPI to digest, but in both cases of minimum relevance, given they pre-date the Middle East conflict, though in the UK still high Services CPI (at 4.4% y/y) and in Australia both headline and core CPI well outside of the RBA’s 2.0-3.0% target range underline a less than ideal ‘starting position’ before the impact of the conflict hits. Otherwise, the only other statistical item of note will be US Import Prices, with the event schedule has numerous ECB speakers at the ECB and its Watchers conference, and more from Fed’s Miran. The focus will however, obviously remain on conflict-related news, as much on the narrative from US, Israeli and Iranian officials, as on increasing signs that both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are increasingly losing patience with the persistent Iranian attacks on ports, airports and energy and other infrastructure. But they will be more than aware that joining the conflict in any shape or form will have a profound (likely very negative) impact on the long-term stability of the region.
 
Disclaimer:
This commentary is provided for information purposes only and reflects market conditions and analyst views at the time of writing. It does not constitute investment advice, investment research, or a recommendation. Forward‑looking statements, particularly those concerning geopolitical developments, involve uncertainty and rely on publicly available information and market interpretation.
Click here to subscribe to ADMISI Market Commentary

To view the full report and to sign up for daily market commentary please email admisi@admisi.com

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2026 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

More Articles
Contact Us

Latest News & Market Commentary

ADM & Industry News

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Read Now

Explore Now