Written Commentary
ADM Exceeds 5M Regenerative Agriculture Acreage Gal
September 9, 2025
- UK labour data, G7 PMIs, German GfK, UK CBI Industrial Trends top busier day for data, but Israel Hamas conflict and deluge of corporate earnings likely to dominate; IEA World Energy Outlook; Google and Microsoft headline busy run of major US earnings
- G7 PMIs: manufacturing to remain in the doldrums, as Services mostly lose traction in Asia and Europe, US expected to flatline
- UK: ‘new’ Labour force survey confirms easing labour demand, adds to impression of economy slipping into shallow recession in H2
EVENTS PREVIEW
The overarching focus remains on the Israel Hamas conflict, but there is more in the way of data, events and indeed corporate earnings on the day’s menu. Flash PMIs, German GfK Consumer Confidence, UK CBI Industrial Trends, US Philly Fed Services and Richmond Fed Manufacturing & Services make for a very busy day for surveys, accompanying the second part of the UK monthly labour data and Mexican CPI. Central bank speakers are few and far between as the ECB and Fed meetings await this week and next, though Hungary’s MNB is expected to initiate an initial 50 bps cut to its official rate, after bringing its overnight rate into line with the benchmark in recent months. There are results from Baoshan Steel, CNOOC, Posco in Asia; ASM, Barclays, Norsk Hydro, Novartis, Orange and Unicredito in Europe to digest, before a raft of major earnings in the US, headlined by Alphabet and Microsoft, but also featuring ADM, Coca Cola, General Electric, General Motors, Illinois Tool Works, Kimberly-Clark and NextEra Energy. The IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook will also command attention, particularly in how it contrasts with OPEC’s recent World Oil Outlook. A busier day for govt bond supply has UK I-L 10-yr, German 5-yr, Dutch 10-yr and US 2-yr being auctioned.
** U.K. – Aug/Sep Labour force survey **
Despite the methodological changes to the Labour Force Survey, the second tranche of Unemployment data offered few surprises, and overall confirmed the already established loosening trend, with Employment dropping 88K vs. a revised prior -133K, and Unemployment unchanged at 4.2%. While Vacancies were down in q/q terms, they were unchanged on the month, and thus still remain well above their pre-Covid peak. This fits with the idea that while the economy is likely to slip into recession in H2 2023, it is likely to be a quite shallow contraction.
** G7 – Oct ‘flash’ PMIs **
Japan and Australia PMIs were notable for the sharp setback in Services activity to 51.1 (-2.7 pt) in Japan and even more so in Australia to 47.6 (-4.2 pt), while Manufacturing PMIs remained in contraction at 48.7 and 48.0 respectively. Forecasts for the remaining ‘flash’ PMIs look for little or no change relative to September for the Eurozone, UK and USA, and per se confirming expectations of a slip into a shallow recession in the Eurozone and the UK, and implying the strength expected in US Q3 GDP will prove to be an exaggerated one-off. That said in respect of the US, surveys have proven to be a rather poor guide to official data, with the exception of Consumer Confidence, whose Q3 surge captured the strength seen in Consumer Spending.
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