Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 23 February

  • Modest run of data features final Eurozone CPI and revised US Q4 GDP, US weekly jobless claims, UK CBI Retailing survey, South African PPI, Mexico mid-month CPI; digesting BoK rates hold, robust Australia Q4 CapEx; G20 Finance Ministers meeting; USDA Agricultural Outlook conference; EIA oil & gas Inventories: Anglo American heads busy day for miner earnings; US 7-yr
  • Eurozone CPI seen unrevised, focus on Services after basket weighting increased
  • US Q4 GDP seen unrevised, but Personal Consumption expected to be revised lower, now very historical


There is a busier run of statistics today, but with major data (Eurozone CPI, US GDP) being revised or final readings, it is only US weekly jobless claims that may have an impact, with the UK CBI Retailing survey, South African PPI, Mexico mid-month CPI and the KC Fed Manufacturing survey being the only other items of note. As expected the Bank of Korea held rates at 3.50%, while Turkey’s TCMB is seen cutting rates a further 100 bps to 8.0%, front loading rate cuts that had been anticipated later in the year in order to offer some assistance to the economy in the wake of the devastating earthquake. India hosts a 2 day G-20 Finance Ministers’ meeting, which will focus on efforts to offer debt relief to numerous countries in Africa and South Asia, and there are also a good number of central bank speakers. In the commodity space, the USDA holds its annual Agricultural Outlook 2023 conference, and accompanying report, with EIA inventory data for oil, ethanol and natural gas also on tap. Anglo American and a raft of other miners publish quarterly earnings reports, with Alibaba, Axa, Deutsche Telekom, Eni, Heidelberg Cement, Munich Re and Rolls Royce also reporting, while North America looks to CBRE, Cheniere Energy, Domino’s Pizza, Hudbay Minerals, Keurig Dr Pepper, Newmont and Warner Bros Discovery.

Eurozone CPI is expected to be revised up from the provisional -0.4% m/m 8.5% y/y to 0.2% / 8.6%, though core CPI is seen unrevised at 5.2% y/y (cyclical high); given the ECB’s very steely focus on Services inflation, it is worth noting that its weighting in the basket has been revised higher, while food and energy weights are now lower. US Q4 GDP is seen unrevised at 2.9%, though Personal Consumption is expected to be revised down to 1.9% from 2.1%, while the GDP and Core PCE Deflators are seen unrevised at 3.5% and 3.9% respectively. But the key point of focus in the next 24 hours is likely to be testimony by BoJ governor nominee Ueda in the early hours of tomorrow, which follows tonight’s National CPI data, even if he is unlikely to offer any concrete ideas on exiting the BoJ’s ultra-easy monetary policy.

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