Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q1 2024 Results
April 30, 2024
Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 23 April
- April 23, 2024
- Marc Ostwald
- Follow us on Twitter @ADMISI_Ltd
Flash PMIs and corporate earnings dominate schedule, as Japan ramps up FX intervention rhetoric, US threatens sanctions on China banks, and UK FY 2023/24 budget deficit overshoots; busier run of central bank speakers; flood of 2-yr govt bond issuance
PMIs: little change seen in Europe and US; India growth very robust, modest further improvement in Japan; price sub-indices a focal point
EVENTS PREVIEW
G7 and India flash PMIs, US New Home Sales and UK PSNB accompany a busy day for bellwether US corporate earnings and a raft of 2-yr bond auctions in Japan, Germany, Italy and the US, and a busy run of central bank speakers. The US corporate earnings run features Tesla along with Freeport-McMoRan, General Electric, Halliburton, Kimberly-Clark, Lockheed Martin, NextEra Energy, Pepsico, Philip Morris, PulteGroup, Texas Instruments and UPS amongst others. There are also Japan stepping up its FX intervention threat to consider, though FX markets continue to be rather immune to rhetoric, and there is also the US threat to sanction some Chinese banks from the international payments system for aiding Russia, and the sizeable overshoot on the UK’s budget 2023/24 budget deficit to digest.
** G7/India – April flash PMIs **
If forecasts for today’s provisional PMIs, which assume little or no change relative to March, are correct, then they are unlikely to prompt much in the way of market reaction, though forecasts may be reflective of a good deal of agnosticism about the short-term trajectory for growth. As expected India’s PMIs continued to show a very robust expansion, while Japan saw Manufacturing inching towards positive territory, and in contrast to the Economy Watchers surveys, the Services PMI picked up. Elsewhere they are likely to effectively confirm that US growth remains resilient, UK Manufacturing is eking out small gains as the Services sector sees a solid expansion, while France contracts, and German Manufacturing remains desultory, with Services at best tepid. Given there has been a protracted run up in energy prices, there will be particular focus on price indices accelerated upward pressures.
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