Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 23 April

  • Flash PMIs and corporate earnings dominate schedule, as Japan ramps up FX intervention rhetoric, US threatens sanctions on China banks, and UK FY 2023/24 budget deficit overshoots; busier run of central bank speakers; flood of 2-yr govt bond issuance

  • PMIs: little change seen in Europe and USIndia growth very robust, modest further improvement in Japan; price sub-indices a focal point

EVENTS PREVIEW

G7 and India flash PMIs, US New Home Sales and UK PSNB accompany a busy day for bellwether US corporate earnings and a raft of 2-yr bond auctions in Japan, Germany, Italy and the US, and a busy run of central bank speakers. The US corporate earnings run features Tesla along with Freeport-McMoRan, General Electric, Halliburton, Kimberly-Clark, Lockheed Martin, NextEra Energy, Pepsico, Philip Morris, PulteGroup, Texas Instruments and UPS amongst others. There are also Japan stepping up its FX intervention threat to consider, though FX markets continue to be rather immune to rhetoric, and there is also the US threat to sanction some Chinese banks from the international payments system for aiding Russia, and the sizeable overshoot on the UK’s budget 2023/24 budget deficit to digest.

** G7/India – April flash PMIs **
If forecasts for today’s provisional PMIs, which assume little or no change relative to March, are correct, then they are unlikely to prompt much in the way of market reaction, though forecasts may be reflective of a good deal of agnosticism about the short-term trajectory for growth. As expected India’s PMIs continued to show a very robust expansion, while Japan saw Manufacturing inching towards positive territory, and in contrast to the Economy Watchers surveys, the Services PMI picked up. Elsewhere they are likely to effectively confirm that US growth remains resilient, UK Manufacturing is eking out small gains as the Services sector sees a solid expansion, while France contracts, and German Manufacturing remains desultory, with Services at best tepid. Given there has been a protracted run up in energy prices, there will be particular focus on price indices accelerated upward pressures.

To view the full report and to sign up for daily market commentary please email admisi@admisi.com

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now