Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 21 November

  • Digesting RBA minutes, UK PSNB, South Korea Trade; awaiting Fed Minutes, US Existing Home Sales, Canada CPI; AI ‘darling’ Nvidia tops run of corporate earnings; German 5-yr, Finnish 10 & 13-yr, US FRN 2-yr and TIPS 10-yr; Hungary and Nigeria rate decisions
  • German budget spending freeze following constitutional court ruling likely terminal for fractious coalition
  • FOMC minutes: focus on discussion on changes to economic outlook & Fed Senior Loan Officer survey implications for policy
  • Canada CPI: energy prices = base effects to drive down headline, core measures to ease but remain elevated, support BoC hawkish rhetoric
  • Recording of today’s Gulf Intelligence ‘Daily Energy Podcast’: YouTube watch here


As is the case for much of this week, the day’s run of statistics is rather unlikely to have anything more than a passing impact, comprising as it does: the overnight UK PSNB (slightly better than expected) and Q3 Output per Hour, EU27 New Car Registrations along with South Korea’s Nov 1-20 Trade, while Canadian CPI, and US Existing Home Sales lie ahead. Today’s ECB speakers have some very weighty topics on their minds, with Lagarde talking about ‘Inflation kills democracy’, while Centeno addresses ‘Fiscal vs. Monetary Policy’, while this evening brings the November FOMC minutes, and there are rate decisions in Hungary and Nigeria. Chipmaker and AI proxy behemoth Nvidia tops the run of corporate earnings, which also sees results from Baidu, HP, Kohl’s and Lowe’s. A busier day for govt bond supply sees Germany sell 5-yr, Finland 10 & 13-yr, while the US offers 2-yr FRN and 10-yr TIPS. Expectations for Nigeria’s CBN rate decision range from 50 bps to 200 bps as new governor Cardoso takes the reins of his first policy meeting. By contrast, Hungary’s MNB is expected to deliver a further 75 bps cut to 11.50%, after initiating cuts to its official policy rate in October with a similarly sized move. Otherwise, the focus will be on the USD’s continued downtrends as markets focus on a Fed inflection on rates (clearly dressing up an old idea in new clothes), and the ongoing fall-out from last week’s German constitutional court ruling, which has prompted the Finance Ministry to put a freeze on nearly all budget spending pledges, thus creating a further headwind for the German economy, with a resolution on how to get over this show stopper likely to test whether the current fractious 3 party coalition can survive.

The Fed and tomorrow’s ECB minutes will likely be more a case of how markets choose to interpret them, above all in terms of the revival of rate pivots, in no small part due to data released since those meetings. Of interest in the FOMMC minutes will be the extent to which FOMC members echoed Powell’s comments about the prior meeting’s ‘dot plot’ had been overtaken by ensuing data and indeed the signals on waning credit demand in the Fed’s Senior Loan Officers’ survey. US Existing Home Sales are seen declining a further 1.5% m/m, with low inventories still as much to blame as high mortgage rates. Canada’s CPI is expected to post a rise of just 0.1% m/m, thus enabling energy-related base effects to drive the y/y rate down to 3.1% y/y from 3.8%, though core measures are seen only 0.1/0.2 ppt lower at 3.6% y/y, enough to keep the BoC hold, but not to ease back from a hawkish bias.

To view the full report and to sign up for daily market commentary please email

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now