Written Commentary
ADM Exceeds 5M Regenerative Agriculture Acreage Gal
September 9, 2025
Stronger than expected Australia labour data, Japan Trade and German PPI to digest; US jobless claims, Philly Fed and Existing Home Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence ahead; South Africa and Turkey rate decisions; UK by-elections; France, Spain and US to sell debt; modest run of corporate earnings
Turkey’s TCMB expected to ‘normalize’ rates further with 350 bps hike, likely to unwind special measures
South Africa’s SARB seen hiking a further 25 bps as it aims for lower end of CPI target range
EVENTS PREVIEW
The day’s schedule is something of rag tag mix of EM rate decisions, largely second division data, and a more modest run of corporate earnings, all of which may underwhelm as markets continue to pedal back aggressive rate hike expectations, and now largely dismiss the chance of a BoJ policy tweak next week, which will also see Fed and ECB policy meetings. There are better-than-expected Australian Employment, and largely as-expected Japanese Trade and German PPI data to digest, with Eurozone provisional Consumer Confidence, US weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing and Existing Home Sales ahead. UK politics rolls back into the limelight with 3 by-elections taking place, including former PM Johnson’s seat, with the only question being just how badly the ruling Conservative party fares. As expected China’s 1 and 5-yr Loan Prime rates were left unchanged, while Turkey’s TCMB is expected to hike rate a further 350 bps to 18.50% as it normalizes policy, which will also involve rolling back some of its complex matrix of market operations and regulations. Meanwhile, South Africa’s SARB is seen hiking rates a further 25 bps to 8.50%, even though yesterday’s CPI (5.4% y/y) brought headline back into its target range of 3.0-6.0%, given that it prefers to aim for the lower to middle part of the range. Govt supply takes the form of multi maturity auctions in France and Spain, as the US sells 10-yr TIPS. Abbott Laboratories, Freport-McMoRan, Johnson & Johnson, Newmont and SAP head the day’s run of corporate earnings, as commodity markets focus in on Q2 production reports from BHP, Amplats, Anglo American & Kumba Iron Ore, along with USDA livestock monthly reports and the EIA’s weekly report on U.S. NatGas inventories.
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