Written Commentary
ADM Exceeds 5M Regenerative Agriculture Acreage Gal
September 9, 2025
Digesting hawkish RBA minutes, awaiting US Retail Sales, Industrial Production, NAHB Housing survey; financials top US earnings run; smattering of central bank speakers; UK, German debt sales
US Retail Sales: autos to boost headline, core measures seen rising modestly
US Industrial Production: lower mining output and PMI contraction expected to flatline production
Canada CPI: headline expected to drop to top of BOC target range, core measures seen falling but still relatively elevated
Yesterday’s interview with CGTN Europe on China Q2 GDP and outlook click here to watch
EVENTS PREVIEW
A sparse and rather lopsided calendar has plenty for markets to contemplate, with an array of US activity indicators accompanied by Canadian inflation indicators headlining the data run, but little elsewhere outside of tonight’s NZ CPI. In events terms, there are the RBA minutes to digest (hawkish, though emphasizing risks to the economic outlook from clearly restrictive policy), ahead of some ECB speakers, and non-monetary policy Fed speakers, with financials (Bank of America, BoNY Mellon and Morgan Stanley) and Lockheed Martin topping the run of US Q2 earnings. Meanwhile, in the commodity space, Brazil’s Vale issues the first of this week’s busy run of Q2 production reports from the world’s mining behemoths, and Germany (2-yr) and the UK (30 yr) auction debt.
** U.S.A. – Retail Sales, Industrial Production, NY Fed Manufacturing & NAHB Housing Index **
US Retail Sales have been notably stronger than many had anticipated, even if not particularly robust, forecasts looks for a boost from a jump in Auto Sales thanks to discounts, with a rise of 0.5% m/m, and the core ‘Control Group’ measure is seen up a more modest 0.3% m/m. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output are both seen flat m/m, echoing the persistent weakness in Manufacturing PMIs and surveys, and also seeing a drag from the extractive sectors as rig counts fell. This week’s Housing sector data are seen mixed, with the leading NAHB index seen recovering a tiny bit further to 56.
** Canada – June CPI **
CPI is forecast to show headline up a modest 0.3% m/m, with bases effects helping to bring the y/y rate down from 3.4% to just 3.0%, and more importantly, core CPI measures to drop 0.2 ppts to 3.6% and 3.7% y/y respectively, while both IPPI and RMPI are seen down in m/m terms, per se underlining a lack of pipeline pressures. Such an outcome would affirm market expectations that the recent 25 bps hike to 5.0% will likely be the final one in the current rate hike cycle, even if the BoC will probably retain a tightening bias until year end.
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