Written Commentary
ADM Exceeds 5M Regenerative Agriculture Acreage Gal
September 9, 2025
- Relatively light schedule of data likely to be little more than roadkill as markets focus on rate outlooks and myriad of geopolitical tensions
- Digesting weak Japan Orders and Australian Employment, UK RICS House Price rebound; awaiting ECB Minutes, BoE Credit Conditions survey, US Philly Fed Manufacturing, Housing Starts, Jobless Claims and Brazil monthly GDP; sprinkling of central bank speakers, US, France and Spain auctions, and IEA Oil Market Report
- ECB Minutes: rate discussion largely superseded by recent Lagarde and other speeches, but views on CPI, Wages and Growth of particular note
- US: mean reversion expected for Housing Starts, mild weather may give a boost, Jobless Claims to remain very low, Philly Fed Manufacturing hopefully a better steer than wild NY Fed
EVENTS PREVIEW
Today’s run of data is rather lightweight by comparison to yesterday’s run of top tier data, with Japan’s Machinery Orders, Australian labour data, UK RICS House Price Balance to digest, with Brazil’s monthly GDP, US Housing Starts, Philly Fed Manufacturing and weekly jobless claims ahead. There is yesterday’s Fed Beige Book to digest ahead of the BoE’s Bank Liabilities & Credit Conditions surveys and the ‘account’ (minutes) of the December ECB policy meeting, accompanying some more central bank speakers, while IEA rounds off this month’s run of Oil Market Reports. Taiwan’s chip behemoth headlines a modest run of corporate earnings, while France, Spain and the US hold govt bond auctions.
The December ECB minutes have to a large extent been superseded by the run of speeches by Lagarde et al. above all Lagarde yesterday suggesting a summer rate cut is likely on the cards, having stated at the December press conference that there was no discussion about rate cuts. That said, there will doubtless have been some council members who referenced market rate cut expectations at the time, and there will obviously have been some discussion about the faster than expected fall in CPI, and observations about wage and growth trends. The BoE’s Bank Liabilities & Credit Conditions surveys will above all be of interest for the degree to which the fall in market rate expectations and lower mortgage rates feed into easier credit conditions, as well as signals on loan delinquencies and defaults. US Housing Starts are expected to fall -8.2% m/m, in principle a mean reversion after November’s unexpected surge, though the unseasonably mild December weather may provide some offset; weekly jobless claims are seen remaining low, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey may offer a rather more useful perspective on sector trends than the discombobulated message from the super volatile NY Fed survey.
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