Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
Very light run of data, events and earnings to end the week with only Singapore Exports and Malaysia GDP to digest and a handful of central bank speakers, focus on improving Middle East peace prospects.
- Middle East: some risk of ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ as reality of medium-term disruptions and long-term geopolitical shifts moves into view
EVENTS PREVIEW
Geopolitics will again be the dominant factor on a very light day for statistics, with a more modest roster of central bank speakers and only a handful of corporate earnings. Prospects for an interim US/Iran peace deal, a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz and a 10-day ceasefire in the Israel/Lebanon conflict should continue to underpin risk assets. But with US equities having made new highs this week, i.e. discounting such an outcome, there may be some ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ as we head into the weekend. If the current situation does hold, then attention will have to turn to how long it will take to clear shipping backlogs, restore production of a vast array of raw and processed raw materials, and how countries look to address major security issues around supply chains in the long run, as well as mend/reset heavily impaired bilateral and multilateral relations – all of which will take a long time, with many governments facing some tough choices, as they set their priorities. Some of those govt decisions will inevitably impact resource availability over the long run, as defence, infrastructure and supply security decisions compete with demands from anything AI or energy transformation related.
Next week brings flash PMIs, German Ifo and numerous other surveys, US and UK Retail Sales, UK CPI and labour data and Canada CPI, a much reduced run of central bank speakers, and a much busier run of Q1 corporate earnings in the US and the rest of the world. Speculation around the early May summit between the US and Chinese leaders above all in the context of the Middle East conflicts and the numerous other trade and geopolitical tensions is also likely to feature, with the week ending May Day/Labour day public holidays making for a shorter trading week.
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