Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 13 February 2026

US CPI dominates the statistical schedule, with detailed report on Eurozone Q4 GDP accompanied by Q4 Employment ahead of that, as another unsurprising fall in China’s Home Prices is digested, as it shuts down until February 23 for the Lunar Year holidays. Geopolitically, the focus will be on this year’s Munich Security Conference, with energy security high on the agenda, along with a good deal of likely, often heated discussion about the need to realign defence alliances in the face of the shift in the US to a ‘Donroe doctrine’. Just as important is keeping a close eye on rising tensions between the US executive and the legislature, with Congress voting to overturn tariffs on Canada earlier in the week, and the White House contemplates rowing back tariffs on steel and aluminium as it attempts to convince the public at large that it is dealing with ongoing and very elevated cost of living pressures, which remains at the top of the list of voters concerns ahead of mid-term elections. There are also a good number of Fed, ECB and BoE speakers, though the typically hawkish overnight comments from BoJ’s Tamura may prove to be the most significant of these. Next week’s schedule is quite light in terms of US statistics with the most of the data being for December, including Personal Income & PCE. Japan looks to Q4 prov. GDP, Trade, Machinery Orders and National CPI, the UK to CPI, labour data and Retail Sales, and G7 and India ‘flash’ PMIs also on tap. January Fed minutes, corporate earnings from many major mining companies, including Anglo American, BHP, Glencore and Rio, along with Walmart, and Friday bringing a US Supreme Court session which may or may not offer a ruling on tariffs, while the India AI Impact Summit lists both Nvidia CEO Huang and Alphabet CEO Pichai amongst its keynote speakers.