Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 10 February

At the end of a week largely bereft of major economic data, the week ends with a bang, with China’s PPI and CPI, UK Q4 GDP and array of monthly business activity indicators, Norway’s CPI to digest, with Indian Industrial Production, Canada’s labour market report and US provisional Michigan Sentiment ahead. The central bank events schedule will remain busy with the RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) proving to be as hawkish as the statement accompanying this week’s rate decision, and plenty of ECB and Fed speakers on tap, while policy meeting minutes in Chile and Poland are accompanied by an expected no change rate decision in Russia. The earnings run is rather lighter, with highlights including Mahindra & Mahindra, Mazda Motor, Mitsubishi Materials, Iveco and Enbridge. Yesterday’s US 30-yr auction saw very sluggish demand (cover 2.25x vs. recent average of 2.3x), despite the hefty concession that had been factored in since last Friday’s jobs ‘shock’, with indirect bids proving to be particularly weak; investors will be hoping that next week’s US CPI data will offer some crumbs of comfort to put a brake on the rise in yields, and the deepening inversion of the curve.

Next week brings a barrage of top tier economic data from the US, UK and Japan, headlined by CPI in the USA, which also has Retail Sales, Industrial Production, PPI, Import Prices, NFIB, NAHB Housing, NY & Philly Fed Manufacturing surveys. The UK looks to labour data, CPI & PPI along with Retail Sales, while Japan has Q4 prov. GDP, Trade Balance and Private Machinery Orders (also remember that China aggregates January & February activity data as one release due to LNY distortions). There are no major central bank policy meetings, but a further barrage of speakers, with rates seen unchanged in Indonesia, but rising 25 bps in the Philippines. The US earnings season is well past its peak, but it will still be a busy week both in the US and elsewhere.

** U.K. – Q4 GDP **
While Q4 GDP was in line with forecasts (flat q/q), the December drop of -0.5% m/m was worse than expected, paced by a sharp drop of -0.8% m/m in the Index of Services, and despite a better than expected 0.3% m/m rise in Industrial Production, with the former suggesting that November’s boost was largely World Cup related. Nevertheless, there was a considerable silver lining in the quarterly data with a 4.8% q/q surge in Business Investment against expectations of a 0.3% contraction offering some hope going forward, after a protracted period of weakness, and accompanied by some strength in Gross Fixed Capital Formation (1.5% q/q vs. expected 0.7% q/q). It also echoes a recent survey by the IoD, even if the data series is often subject to some sharp revisions by the time it gets to the final report. Monthly and quarterly trade data continue to infer a very poor trend, with the Q3 contribution from net exports largely reversed in Q4, and the monthly trade data showing a sharp widening in both the visible and total trade balances, even when excluding the distortions of precious metal trade.

** China – January CPI and PPI **
Both CPI and PPI offered little in the way of any emergent re-opening inflation pressures, with the as expected rise in CPI to 2.1% y/y largely paced by Food (6.2% y/y vs. prior 4.8%, with Non-Food Prices edging up 0.1 ppt to 1.2%, while core CPI rose to a still very low 1.0% y/y from 0.6%. There were sharp increases in airfares (20.3% y/y), cinema tickets (10.7%), and travel prices (9.3% y/y), but these were driven by base effects given all fell sharply during the largely shutdown LNY period in 2022. By contrast PPI fell -0.4% m/m and -0.8% y/y, with lower crude oil, coal and chemicals prices the main contributors, and implying that the re-opening is for the time being not creating any supply bottlenecks, and is only slow gathering momentum, notwithstanding the rebound in PMI readings.