Written Commentary
ADM Exceeds 5M Regenerative Agriculture Acreage Gal
September 9, 2025
Modest statistical schedule has UK BRC sales, Australia confidence surveys to digest, focus on US annual Payrolls revisions, NFIB survey; political turmoil widens, US EIA monthly oil market report, BIS Innovation summit.
- US: BLS Payrolls revisions seen lower, but smaller than prior year; NFIB Business survey seen edging higher, Economic Optimism sub-index key
EVENTS PREVIEW
The statistical schedule is unlikely to grab that much attention today, amounting to digesting the overnight UK BRC Retail Sales and Australian confidence surveys, with Taiwan Trade, US NFIB Small Business Optimism, and Mexican CPI. As such, the highlight will likely be the BLS annual benchmark revisions to Payrolls, and in the commodity space the first of this week’s monthly oil market reports, the EIA’s STEO (Short-term Energy Outlook). There are a number of central bank speakers at the BIS Innovation Summit, but ECB speakers are in purdah ahead of Thursday’s council meeting, and SNB’s Schlegel is speaking later in the week on monetary policy. There may be some focus on the run of govt bond auctions, with the UK selling 1.75 Bln 2043, Germany 1.5 Bln total of 6 & 10-yr, and the US kicking off this week’s refunding with USD 58 Bln of 3-yr T-Notes. Outside of that, political turmoil and risk continue to widen as France’s PM Bayrou unsurprisingly lost yesterday’s confidence vote, the removal of Indonesia’s long standing Finance Minister unsettles local markets, and Argentine markets plunge as President Milei is defeated by the Peronist opposition in the Buenos Aires elections, following on from the turmoil in the UK and Japan.
** U.S.A. – Annual Payrolls Revision, Aug NFIB survey **
– The BLS annual revision to Payrolls is expected to be in the range of -400K to -620K, i.e. substantial and certainly adding to the case for a Fed rate cut next week, but still lower than last year’s -818K, which was in the end revised to just -500K. The NFIB Small Business Optimism survey is seen little changed at 100.5, after posting a somewhat stronger than expected pick-up to 100.3 in July. The already published employment components saw Plans to Hire edge up to 15.0, highest since February, as well as improvements in compensation sub-indices, perhaps hinting at some modest upside risks relative to the consensus, but it will be the Economic Optimism sub-index which will be decisive, particularly after it rebounded sharply in July to 36 (from 22), also the best reading since February.
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