Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 09 February 2026

U.S.A.: thanks to the brief government shutdown, the week has the delayed January labour market report, CPI and December Retail Sales, along with the Q4 Employment Cost Index, NFIB Small Business Optimism and Existing Home Sales. Non-farm Payrolls are expected to pick up modestly to 69K, with Private Payrolls at 75K. But with the usual annual adjustments to the BLS’ ‘birth and death’ model, and the publication of revised readings for April through December 2025 (likely lower) and the final annual benchmark revision (seen at -863K), the risk of a surprise looks to be large, though it would be wise not to over-extrapolate signals on trends, especially as underlying immigration assumptions are de facto incorrect given the collapse in immigration during 2025. The Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at 4.4%, as is the Participation Rate at 62.4%, while Average Hourly Earnings are forecast to be up 0.3% m/m, edging the yr/yr rate down to 3.7%. The consensus looks for headline CPI to be up 0.2% m/m and core 0.3% m/m, pushing y/y rates down to 2.4% and 2.5% respectively, and while the seasonal adjustment tries to iron out the typical annual price hikes that occur in January, it is a far from perfect process, with anecdotal evidence offering very conflicting signals on goods price inflation, though autos and medicines should be a constraint. It will also take another couple of months to iron out the distortions from the lack of data for October, nevertheless a close eye needs to be kept on household utilities inflation, which is running hot (Dec Energy Services 7.7% y/y, Electricity 6.7%, Utility Gas 10.8%). December Retail Sales are forecast to rise 0.4% m/m on most measures, though the core Control Group is seen up 0.5% m/m, with lower auto and gasoline prices set to act as a restraint (this being a value not a volume measure). Otherwise, the focus will be on indirect talks between the US and Iran to de-escalate highly elevated tensions.

China: This is the final week before China closes for the Lunar New Year holidays from 16 to 23 February, and as usual, January activity data will be aggregated with February, leaving the focus on CPI, PPI, credit aggregates and home price reports. CPI is forecast to drop to 0.4% y/y from 0.8%, mostly due to Lunar New Year timing effects above all on food prices (2025 LNY was in January), while PPI deflation is seen easing to -1.1% y/y from -1.9%, boosted by the rally in many commodity prices impact on overall raw materials prices. Start of year influences are set to give a huge boost to credit aggregates with New Yuan Loans expected to see a more than fivefold increase to CNY 5.0 Trln, resulting in Aggregate Financing soaring to CNY 7.07 Trln, though corporate bond financing is only expected to see a small increase. Home price data are unlikely to see any significant improvement from the continued fall in New and Existing prices from December’s -0.37% m/m and -0.7% m/m, as property investment continues to be the biggest drag on China’s economy.

Japan: PM Takaichi has achieved the largest landslide majority for any leader since the end of WWII, getting the 2/3 majority in the lower house elections that allows her to override any pushback on policy measures from the Upper House. This was largely anticipated by markets in the run-up, and should give a boost to the Nikkei, while weighing on the JPY and pushing up long-dated JGB yields. The question now is whether the government sticks with the proposed 2 year suspension of the food sales tax, and whether Finance Minister Katayama can deliver this without deficit financing bond issuance, as she has said she would in a TV interview after the election result. The problem in political terms will be whether it will be feasible to revert to the current 8% sales tax rate at the end of the 2 year period. The week’s statistical schedule will find its focal point in Monday’s Labour Cash Earnings for December that are set to bounce sharply from a revised 1.7% y/y to 3.2%, which would see Real Earnings move back into positive territory at 0.8% y/y for the first time since December 2024, with faster basic pay, a rise in the minimum wage and a big boost from winter bonuses pacing the faster increase. Machine Tool Orders and the Economy Watchers (services) Survey are also scheduled for release.

UK: The fate of PM Starmer following the Mandelson / Epstein scandal continues to cast a long shadow, though last week’s dovish BoE hold on rates continues to ripple through in market impact terms. Statistically provisional Q4 GDP will be the highlight of the week, with an expected 0.1% m/m increase in December GDP after an unexpectedly solid 0.3% m/m in December, implying Q4 growth will edge up to 0.2% q/q from a tepid 0.1% in Q3. Private Consumption is unsurprisingly expected to be lacklustre at 0.2% q/q, with Government Spending seen at 0.5% q/q offsetting a drag from Net Exports, and Business Investment and Gross Fixed Capital Formation set to slow from robust prints of 1.5% and 1.3% q/q in Q3. This will however be of secondary importance in terms of the near term trajectory for BoE rates, with the focus now likely to be on how far CPI undershoots the BoE’s 2.0% target and for how long, and some mixed signals on the labour demand, which appears to be picking up after a period of weakness, with Monday’s KPMG/REC Employment report offering some fresh insights.

In the Commodities space, the EIA, IEA and OPEC all publish their monthly reports, as International Energy takes place in London, and Norway hosts the Oslo Energy Forum, with earnings from BP and TotalEnergies also slated, while gas and power markets look to E-World in Germany, as energy prices continue to gyrate sharply on Iran related news, as well as the roller coaster ride in precious and industrial metals. The latter will be watching earnings from Vale. Sumitomo Metal and Albemarle, as well as the Indaba Mining and Tampa Steel conferences. A bumper week for Agricultural crop reports has the USDA’s WASDE, China CASDE, Brazil CONAB, France Agriculture Ministry, Australia GIWA and Malaysia MPOB slated.

There are 79 S&P 500 companies reporting this week, with worldwide corporate earnings highlights as compiled by Bloomberg News likely to include: ABN Amro Bank, Adnoc Gas, Adyen, Agnico Eagle Mines, Airbnb, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Ambev, Ameren, America Movil, American Electric Power, American International Group, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Apollo Global Management, Applied Materials, AppLovin, Arch Capital Group, Arista Networks, Astera Labs, AstraZeneca, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Banco BTG Pactual, Banco do Brasil, Barclays, Becton Dickinson, BP, British American Tobacco, Brookfield, Cameco, Capgemini, CBRE Group, Cie Generale des Etablissements Michelin, Cincinnati Financial, Cloudflare, Coal India, Coca-Cola, Coinbase Global, Commerzbank, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Credicorp, CSL, CVS Health, Dai-ichi Life, Dassault Systemes, Datadog, DBS Group, Delta Electronics Thailand, Deutsche Boerse, Dexcom, Dubai Electricity & Water Authority, Duke Energy, Ecolab, Edwards Lifesciences, Enbridge, Entergy, Equinix, EssilorLuxottica, Eversource Energy, Exelon, Expedia Group, Ferrari, Fiserv, Ford Motor, Fortis/Canada, Fujikura, Gilead Sciences, Great-West Lifeco, Hanwha Aerospace, HD Hyundai Heavy, Heineken, Hermes International, Hilton Worldwide, Hindustan Unilever, Honda Motor, Howmet Aerospace, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Ingersoll Rand, Inpex, Intact Financial, Iron Mountain, Japan Post, Japan Post Bank, Japan Tobacco, KBC Group, Kering, Kioxia Holdings, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize, Koninklijke Philips, Kraft Heinz, L’Oreal, Legrand, Mahindra & Mahindra, Manulife Financial, Marriott International, Martin Marietta Materials, McDonald’s, Mercedes-Benz Group, Mitsubishi Estate, Motorola Solutions, MS&AD Insurance Group, NatWest Group, NetEase, Northern Star Resources, Oil & Natural Gas, Orix, Otsuka Holdings, PG&E, Public Storage, Recruit, Relx, Restaurant Brands International, Robinhood Markets, Rollins, S&P Global, Safran, Schindler Holding, Semiconductor Manufacturing International, Shopify, Siemens, Siemens Energy, SoftBank, SoftBank Group, Sompo Holdings, Spotify Technology, State Bank of India, Sun Life Financial, Swisscom, T-Mobile US, TC Energy, Titan, Tokio Marine, TotalEnergies, UniCredit, Unilever, Vale, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Vertiv Holdings, Waste Connections, Welltower, Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies, Williams, Xylem, Zoetis.