Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead – 14 January 2021

Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture

Written by Marc Ostwald, ADMISI’s Global Strategist & Chief Economist

• Digesting better than expected China Trade, Japan Orders UK RICS survey along with Fed Beige Book and Fed pushback on ‘taper talk’; awaiting  US jobless claims, Import Prices, ECB minutes and Powell speech; OPEC  oil market report, Italy govt crisis
• FWIW: Please contact Marc for the slides from yesterday’s IoD ‘2021 Economic  Forecasting Event’ presentation
• Yesterday’s interview with Le Fonti International can be found here.
• Weekly Investing Channel video looks at the impact (thus far) of  US Treasury yield rises and curve steepening click here to view.

EVENTS PREVIEW

A much busier day for statistics has the run of better than expected Chinese Trade, Japanese Orders and UK RICS House Price Balance to digest, while ahead lie Indian WPI, US weekly jobless claims and Import Prices. There are also the push backs on Fed tapering from Brainard and Clarida along with the latest Beige Book (unsurprisingly showing short-term concern, but longer-term optimism on the economic outlook, as well as some input price pressures) to mull ahead of Powell’s appearance today, with the Dec ECB ‘account’ (minutes), a number of other Fed speakers (all of whom have spoken this week) and the latest OPEC monthly Oil Market Report also due. Blackrock gets the US Q4 earnings season under way, with markets pushing back somewhat on the US longer-term Treasury yield rise and the curve steepening after a very strong 30-yr auction yesterday, suggesting that some of the rise was nothing more than factoring in a concession for this week’s supply, which is likely to be a more prominent feature ahead of supply this year. Pandemic and political continues to be largely ignored, though Italian BTP spreads and equities will doubtless come under some further pressure after the Conte govt fell last night, but given that Italian political crises are ‘the norm’, this will doubtless again blow over; hopes for Biden’s initial fiscal package (said to total ca. $2.0 Trln) remain front and centre.

To view the full report and to sign up for daily market commentary please email admisi@admisi.com

The information within this publication has been compiled for general purposes only. Although every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, ADM Investor Services International Limited (ADMISI) assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions and will not update it. The views in this publication reflect solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of ADMISI or its affiliated institutions. This publication and information herein should not be considered investment advice nor an offer to sell or an invitation to invest in any products mentioned by ADMISI.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.