Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 5 cents and near 13.79. SMZ is near 407.3. BOZ is near 63.85. CZ is up 3 cents and near 6.83. WZ is up 6 cents and near 9.18. KWZ is up 10 cents and near 9.99. MWZ is up 6 cents and near 9.86.
US 30 day Midwest weather looks dry with warm temps west and cool east. Argentina remains dry. Central Brazil is expected to see normal weather. S Brazil rains is slowing plantings there. Rains in Russia also slowing plantings.
Lower Dollar maybe helping corn futures. US corn harvest is near 20 pct vs 27 ly. Crop is still rated 52 pct G/E. There are no US Nov corn export offers due to low river water levels. Total US corn exports were up 4 pct vs ly but total export commit is down 49 pct vs ly. Brazil and Ukraine export prices are below US. Key to corn is harvest yields, farmer selling, USDA Oct report and SA weather.
Lower Dollar maybe helping soybean futures. US soybean harvest is near 22 pct vs 31 ly. Crop is still rated 55 pct G/E. There are no US Nov soybean and soymeal export offers due to low river water levels. Total US soybean exports were down 3 pct vs ly. Brazil and Argentina export prices are below US. Key to soybean is harvest yields, farmer selling, USDA Oct report and SA weather.
Lower Dollar maybe helping wheat futures. US winter wheat planting is near 40 pct vs 45 ly. Russia export offers are lower than US. Total US wheat exports were up 2 pct vs ly. Key to wheat is US weather and Black Sea exports. US topsoils are 58 pct short/VS vs 54 last week and 46 ly. KS 86, OK 92, NE 81, SD 80, OR 73, AR 86.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. OPEC talking production cuts. China is on holiday. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher.
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