Written Commentary
ADM Exceeds 5M Regenerative Agriculture Acreage Gal
September 9, 2025
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are a bit higher this morning, as it appears that that deal to resume pipeline oil flows from Iraq’s Kurdistan region through Turkey have stalled. The deal was expected to result in the resumption of about 230,000 barrels per day of oil exports from Kurdistan to the global market. Flows have been suspended since March 2023. The deal was apparently stalled because two oil producing firms have asked for assurances their depts would be repaid. This seems like a technicality that could be resolved, and it is impressive that the market can rally off the news. The trade is anticipating a surge in supply this fall from OPEC+. Kuwait has increased its capacity, and Iraq is hoping to see its quota expanded. For the petroleum stocks reports this week, the early Reuters poll has an average expectation calling for US crude oil stocks to be +1.1 million barrels for the week ending September 19. Gasoline stocks are expected to be -300,000 barrels and distillates -1.5 million. Refinery runs are expected to be -0.9% to 92.4%.
NATURAL GAS
November Natural Gas traded to another new low for the move overnight. The weather forecast calls for above normal temps across most of the lower 48 US states out through October 6, with some below normal temps creeping into the southwest. This is a slightly more bearish than yesterday, as it is bringing the cool weather to where it would be the hottest, limiting cooling demand, and leaves the warm weather in the north, where it inhibits heating demand. On the whole, more natural gas is consumed heating homes than generating electricity for cooling them, so this warm trend is viewed as bearish. For the EIA natural gas storage report this week, the early Reuters poll has a range of expectations calling for US storage to be +68 to +76 for the week ending September 19. The five-year average for the week is +76. The Natural Gas Supply Association’s 2025/26 Winter Outlook is projecting US natural gas production to reach a record 108.5 billion cubic feet per day this winter, up nearly 4 bcfd from last year
PRODUCTS
The product markets are finding support this morning on the rally in crude oil off the stall in the resumption of an oil pipeline from Kurdistan through Turkey. There is also the possibility of an extension of restrictions of Russian gasoline exports due to refinery damage from Ukrainian drone strikes. For the petroleum stocks reports this week, the early Reuters poll has an average expectation calling for US gasoline stocks to be -300,000 barrels and distillates -1.5 million
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
