Investor Sentiment Improved As Shutdown Averted

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Stock index futures are mixed to higher as investor sentiment improved after Congress passed spending legislation on Saturday, averting a U.S. government shutdown.

The November Chicago Federal Reserve national activity index was -0.12 when -0.10 was anticipated.

The 9:00 central time December consumer confidence index is anticipated to be 113.0.

 

Capitol Hill

 

CURRENCIES

The U.S. dollar Index is substantially higher and remains in a three-day congestion pattern.

The fundamentals and technicals remain supportive to the U.S. dollar, and higher prices are likely.

German import prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year in November 2024, marking the first increase since August. Analysts had predicted a 0.3% increase.

The U.K. economy stalled in the third quarter of 2024. The Office for National Statistics lowered its estimate for the change in gross domestic product output to 0.0% in the July-to-September period from a previous estimate of 0.1% growth. In addition, the estimate for growth in the second quarter was lowered to 0.4% from a previous estimate of 0.5% growth.

The Swiss investors’ sentiment index dropped 7.6 points from the previous month to -20 in December 2024. This marks the fifth consecutive month in negative territory.

 

INTEREST RATES

Recent declines in futures are due to the hawkish statement from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 18.

The U.S. Treasury will auction two-year notes today.

There is a 91% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50% at its January 29, 2025 policy meeting, and there is a 9% chance of a 25 basis point reduction.

The U.S. economy is likely to perform well, which may cause the FOMC to be slower to add accommodation in 2025 than the consensus view.

 

 

 

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