India Output Lifts Sugar

SUGAR

March Sugar was slightly higher early Tuesday following a steep selloff on Monday. The market rain into stiff resistance at the 50-day moving average on Friday. Indian sugar production is off to a strong start for their 2025/26 marketing year, which began October 1. The Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) reported Indian mills produced 4.1 million metric tons of sugar during October and November, up from 2.88 million from the same period  last year, a 43% increase. The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) said the sugar recovery rate (percentage of sugar extracted from the sugarcane stalks) was 8.51% versus 8.29% for the same period last year. The group wants the Indian government to allow an additional 1 million metric tons of exports for the current season. Last month the government announced it would allow exports of 1.5 million tons, up from 1.0 million last year. However, mills are reportedly having difficulty securing export deals because as global prices remain below domestic rates. Monday’s UNICA report showed Brazilian Center-South sugar production for the first half of November totaled 982,000 metric tons, up from 904,000 for the same period last year but below expectations from an S&P Global survey that called for 1.075 million. Sugar’s share of crush fell to 38.6% versus 43.1% for the same period last year and well below the average expectation of 41.9%, as crushers focused more of their activity on ethanol production.

COTTON

March Cotton is seeing a slight improvement in export sales, as the weekly numbers come in at an accelerated pace following the disruption in the reporting during the government shutdown. Yesterday’s report showed net sales for the week ending October 23 at 132,760 bales for the 2025/26 (current) marketing year and 34,982 for 2026/27 for a total of 167,742. This was down from 202,518 the previous week, but still solid. Shipments totaled 174,448, up from 159,631 the previous week and the highest of the marketing year so far. Cumulative sales for 2025/26 have reached 44% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 60% for this point in the marketing year. The biggest buyer was China at 13,273 bales for 2024/25 and 22,046 for 2025/26 for a total of 35,319. They were followed by Vietnam, which bought 31,194 bales (all for 2024/25), India at 16,835, and Tukey at 14,960. The next update will be Thursday December 4, and it will cover the week ending October 30. The dollar fell to its lowest level in three weeks yesterday, which offers some improvement in the US competitiveness, but the biggest impact may be demand.

COCOA

March cocoa was near unchanged early Tuesday, trading back and forth inside Monday’s range. The market has seen a bounce off last week’s 13-month lows on what appears to be concerns about an oversold conditions and a growing net short position on the part of the funds. The most recent Commitments of Traders report showed funds were net short 2,027 contracts as of October 14, their first net short in more than three years. The fact that the market fell sharply in the intervening time has traders believing the net short is considerably larger by now, leaving this market vulnerable to a short covering rally. The next update will be today, and it will cover the week ending October 24. Recent ICE data showed speculators in the London contract were net short 26,303 lots as of November 25. The ICCO report on Friday showed a smaller projected global surplus for 2024/25 of 49,000 metric tons, but that was not unexpected. Ivory Coast port arrivals totaled 100,000 tons last week, which was the fifth straight week they were above the five-year average. Ivory Coast farmers interviewed by Reuters this week upbeat about their crop prospects, saying that above-average rains and long sunny spells in most of the main cocoa regions last week are expected to boost yields for the final stage of the October-to-March main crop. The dry season officially runs from mid-November to March, and any additional moisture can help trees withstand the drying Harmattan winds that come down from the Sahara from December to March. After ample rains over the weekend, World Weather Inc. expects drying to occur in interior crop areas of Ivory Coast and Ghana, which would be good for crop maturation and harvest progress. ICE stocks fell 12,904 bags on Monday to 1.698 million, the lowest since March 14.

COFFEE

March Coffee continues to chop around inside a range defined by the politics of tariffs from this fall. When Trump lifted the tariffs on Brazilian coffee last month, the market sold off quickly but bounced off its lows just as fast. Brazilian weather looks favorable for the upcoming crop, but the current supply remains tight. World Weather Inc. expects scattered showers and thunderstorms early next week in most of Brazil’s coffee region with daily rain totals varying from 8 to 20 millimeters and local totals to nearly 50 millimeters. They added that sufficient rain is expected during the next ten days to maintain a favorable environment for coffee development. Vietnam continues to face heavy rains, but so far their robusta crop appears to have avoided any significant damage. Tropical Depression Koto is expect to bring some rain to inland areas of the Central Highlands at times from the middle to late this week, and some disruption to maturation and early harvesting is possible through Saturday, but most of the rain should have very low impact. Net drying is expected in many areas during into early next week. A new tropical disturbance is expected in central Philippines late this week, which will need to be monitored for its potential impact on Vietnam next week.

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