Written Commentary
ADM Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results
November 4, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Stocks are lower. USD is lower. US jobs Tuesday. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. GSI commodity index gapped open lower led by lower energy prices. The index is near season low on demand worries.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.84. SH traded back into a gap from Oct 24. USDA announced 136 mt US soybeans to China. Soybean sales for week of Nov 20 was 2,320 mt of which 2,142 mt was to China. Total commit is near 20.7 mmt vs 33.6 ly. NOPA Nov soybean crush was 216.0 mil bu vs 193.1 ly. Soyoil stocks were 1,514 mil lbs vs 1,084 ly and a 7 month high. US soybean exports were 29.2 mil bu. Season to date exports are 503.4 mil bu vs 927.8 ly and down 46 pct vs ly and USDA est of down 13. One crop watcher est Brazil soybean crop at 176 mmt vs USDA 175 and Argentina 49.0 vs USDA 48.5. Argentina is dry but rains are forecast for the weekend. Brazil could see good rains. India Nov vegoil imports were lowest since April and down 28 pct vs ly.
CORN
CH is near 4.39. USDA announced 150 mt US corn to unknown. Corn sales for week of Nov 20 were 1,840 mt. Total commit is 42.5 mmt vs 32.4 ly. Weekly US corn exports were 1,582 mt with season to date exports at 22.5 mmt vs 13.3 ly and up 69 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 12. One crop watcher est Brazil corn crop at 137 mmt vs USDA 131 and Argentina 54.0 vs USDA 53.0.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.19. 5.08 or contract low may be next price objective. KWH is near 5.11. MWH is near 5.68. Nov 20 wheat export sales were 361 mt. Total commit is near 18.4 mmt vs 15.0 ly. US June-Dec exports could exceed 20 mmt for first time since 2020. Weekly US wheat exports were 488 mt. Season to date exports are 14.1 mmt vs 11.5 ly and up 22 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 9.
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