Grains Were Mixed Overnight

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed. SH is down 12 cents and near 13.57. SMH is near 396.9. BOH is near 58.09. CH is down 4 cents and near 5.92. WH is up 8 cents and near 7.49. KWH is up 8 cents and near 7.53. MWH is up 7 cents and near 8.85. US stocks are lower.

US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, copper, cotton and cocoa are lower. Coffee and sugar are higher.  Bitcoin lower. Dalian soymeal and corn were lower. Soybeans, soyoil, rapeoil higher. Palmoil new highs. Goldman Sachs estimates 2022 commodity prices up 16 pct led by energies and metals.

Soy complex and corn taking out South America weather premium. China buying wheat/barley. Over the weekend, Argentina, Paraguay and south/central Brazil were hot and dry. C Argentina forecast is wet. Paraguay, S Brazil, NE Argentina dry. US South plains dry. China 2021 pork prod up 29 pct to 52.96 mmt. Slower pork imports? Higher soybeans?

USDA dropped World corn crop 3.8 mmt. Trade est Brazil corn 110-115 mmt. Argentina 45-54. Some see US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,195 vs USDA 1,540. Exports 2,680. USDA 2,425. SH Jan range 13.42-14.15. SA harvest negative. 2021/22 US carryout est 275-345. Demand key.

Parana early soybean yields down 40-60 pct vs est. MG yields record. N Brazil lower. Too wet? This could shift demand for US 2022 acres from 88.0 vs 87.2 in 2021 to 90.0+. Corn 91.5?

USDA dropped World soybean crop 9.5 mmt. Trade est Brazil corn 132-140  mmt. Arg 40-46. World Oct-Dec SB/SBM trade 43.7 mmt vs 40.8 ly. Higher Brazil SB, Arg SBM offset lower US SB. USDA est World Oct-Sep trade 181.4 mmt vs 175.4 ly. US SB 55.8 vs 61.7, Brazil 94.0 vs 81.6.

US HRW wheat weather drier than normal could extend into spring. EU/Russia weather normal. US export pace below USDA goal. US HRW export prices now competitive vs Black Sea. Some feel 5 year KC wheat futures rally could extend next 12-18 months. US weather key. Est US 2021/22 wheat carryout 585-700. Matif wheat futures higher on new demand.

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