Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is up 10 cents and near 13.85. SMH is near 444.3. BOH is near 43.31. CH is unchanged and near 4.96. WH is down 2 cents and near 6.36. KWH is down 1 cents and near 5.94.This weeks USDA report could increase grain price volatility this week. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Copper is lower. Could be an interesting week this week in Washington.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 76 yuan in soybeans, up 34 in Corn, up 79 in Soymeal, up 20 in Soyoil, and down 12 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 33ringgit at 3,797 (basis March) on reported record palm oil imports on monthly data; ideas of lower exports.
Most still look for 40 pct of Brazil and 60 pct of Argentina to see less than normal rains over the next 30 days.
US corn prices traded higher last week and at new 7 year highs. Some analyst look for US corn carryout to be closer to 1,400 mil bu vs USDA 1,702. This due to 200 mil bu more exports and 100 mil bu more ethanol. Average trade guess is near 1,599. Trade is also looking for Dec 1 corn stocks near 11,951 versus 11,327 last year. Trade also looks for World corn end stocks near 283.5 mmt versus 288.9 last month. Trade will also be looking at USDA estimate of Brazil and Argentina corn crops.
Argentina has lifted a suspension on corn exports announced in December and will opt instead for a temporary 30,000 tonne daily cap on sales abroad. The agriculture ministry said in a statement in the early hours of Monday that it had struck agreements to guarantee the domestic supply of corn and cushion local prices against fluctuations in international markets, allowing it to end the full ban.
US soybean prices traded higher last week and at new 7 year highs. Some analyst look for US soybean carryout to be closer to 100 mil bu vs USDA 175. This due to 75 mil bu more exports. Average trade guess is near 139. Trade is also looking for Dec 1 soybean stocks near 2,920 versus 3,252 last year. Trade also looks for World soybean end stocks near 82.6 mmt versus 85.6 last month. Trade will also be looking at USDA estimate of Brazil and Argentina soybean crops.
Wheat futures drifted lower last week on lack of new news and slow US export demand. Average trade guess for US 2020/21 wheat carryout is near 859 mil bu versus 862 last month. Trade is also looking for Dec 1 wheat stocks near 1,695 versus 1,841 last year. Trade also looks for World wheat end stocks near 315.3 mmt versus 316.5 last month. Trade will also be looking at USDA estimate of Russia and EU exports.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 3,000 SRW Wheat and 2,000 soyoil; net buyers of 15,000 Soybeans; 7,000 lots of Soymeal, and; 5,000 corn. We estimate Managed Money net long 12,000 contracts of SRW Wheat ; long 362,000 Corn; net long 191,000 Soybeans; net long 92,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 112,000 soyoil. Managed fund long is near record large. Combined corn, soybean, soymeal, soyoil, Chicago, KC and MLS wheat commercial futures and option short is near record 1,613,000 contracts.
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