Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SH up 6 cents near 11.95 and testing 12.00 resistance. SMH is near 392.8. BOH is near 38.97. CH is up 2 cents and near 4.27. WH is up 4 cents and near 6.04. KWH is up 3 cents and near 5.69. US stocks, Crude and Gold are higher. US Dollar is lower.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 28 yuan in soybeans, up 21 in Corn, up 37 in Soymeal, up 20 in Soyoil, and up 52 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 13 ringgit at 3,368 (basis March) firmed by crude oil prices.
In Brazil, conditions are still expected to be favorable for crop development in most of the nation. In Argentina, a beneficial rain event is still expected to impact central and southern production areas of the nation Friday. The GFS model has reduced the intensity of the associated weather disturbance some. There will be some pockets that miss out from much rain in this event though. A period of dryness after the rain event will then lead to some increase of crop stress in the driest areas.
Some feel lower South America crops will increase US corn and soybean exports and lower US carryout. US soybean crush could be 50 mil bu higher and exports 100 higher. This would drop US carryout tom 25. South America corn crop could be down 10 mmt from USDA which could add 400 mil bu to US exports and drop carryout to 1,300.
Argentine oilseed workers continued their wage strike on Tuesday after the failure of recent contract negotiations. The country’s key Ag-export sector has been bogged down by work stoppages by employees of companies that manufacture soy-based livestock feed.
European wheat futures edged higher on Tuesday, steadying after a slide in the previous session as Russia’s less competitive prices in an Egyptian tender kept the focus on an export tax introduced by Moscow. Egypt paid $7 more for their tender. Russia plus tax was to high for consideration.
On Tuesday Managed funds were net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 1,000 Corn; net bought 11,000 Soybeans; bought 7,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 3,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 23,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 285,000 Corn; net long 214,000 Soybeans; net long 74,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 112,000 Soyoil.
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