Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up. CZ is unch. WZ is up. US stocks, US Dollar and Crude are marginally lower. Gold, silver, copper, cotton and hogs are higher. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cattle are lower. Drones attacked Moscow business district
Soybean futures are higher. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil prices were higher. Domestic China soymeal prices are also higher. Argentina is dry before 2024 plantings. Trade trying to find new buying near SX resistance due to hot and dry Midwest forecast for next 2 weeks. Pro Farmer crop tour next week. Historically, Pro farmer soybean yield has been 2-3 bpa below USDA final. There has also been an average of a 25 cent drop in soybean futures during the tour. Weekly US soybean export sales were a total of 1.5 mmt.
Corn futures are sharply unchanged. Dalian corn futures traded higher but there remains increase worries about China economy and commodity imports. Trade trying to find new buying near CZ support near 4.85 due to hot and dry Midwest forecast for next 2 weeks. Pro Farmer crop tour next week. Historically Pro Farmer corn yield is below USDA. Last year tour yield was 168 vs USDA 173 final. There has been an average of a 10 cents drop in corn futures during the tour. Weekly US corn export sales were 940 mt. US old crop commit is down 31 pct vs ly. New crop commit is 17 pct below last year.
Wheat futures are higher. Drones attacked Moscow business district. US SRW export prices are below EU and Russia. Temps are above normal in US, Canada, China, Russia, Ukraine, India and Argentina. US wheat export commit is down 23 pct vs ly and USDA estimate down 8 pct. Russia is trying to maximize wheat exports. Some talking Aussi crop at 25-27 mmt vs USDA 29. Argentina wheat rated only 20 pct G/E.
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