Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is up 3 cents and near 15.12. SMK is near 473.5. BOK is near 61.85. CK is unch and near 6.33. WK is down 3 cents and near 7.09. KWK is unch and near 8.25. MWK is down 1 cent and near 8.75.
Soybean futures are back above 15.00 on dry Argentina weather. Trade looks for USDA to drop Argentina crop to 36 mmt vs 41 previous. At the same time, trade est Brazil crop at record 153 mmt vs USDA 153. Brazil harvest continues to advance. Dalian soybean prices were lower. Soymeal was higher. Palmloil and soyoil were higher on hopes for higher Asian demand. Trade est US 2023/24 soybean carryout near 220 mil bu vs USDA 225.
Corn futures are trying to find support near 6.30 May. USDA 2023/24 US numbers are bearish. Talk of China buying US corn and sorghum offered support but trade awaiting confirmation. US corn export commit remains down 39 pct from ly. Argentina corn crop rating was dropped to record low 6 pct G/E. Trade looks for USDA to drop Argentina crop to 43 mmt vs 47 previous. At the same time, trade est Brazil crop at 125 mmt vs USDA 125. Trade est US 2023/24 corn carryout near 1,308 mil bu vs USDA 1,267.
WK is trying to find support near 7.00, KWK 8.20. Wheat futures are trying to correct an oversold tech picture with Managed funds near record short. Talk of rain in east US HRW states offers resistance. Fact Iran bought Russia wheat also offers resistance. US wheat export commit remains down 6 pct vs ly. The big question is will Russia extend the Ukraine export corridor deal? Some new concern about persistent dryness in west Canada. Also, in El Nino years Australia tends to have lower production. EU looks to see some rain. Trade est US 2023/24 wheat carryout near 573 mil bu vs USDA 568. Trade est World 2023/24 wheat carryout near 269 mmt vs 276 ly.
The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index inched down 0.6% last month to 129.8. A long-running decline in global food prices continued for an eleventh consecutive month in February, though the rate of decline appeared to be easing, as grains prices remain locked at historically elevated levels and many countries continue to experience debilitating levels of hunger and soaring local food prices. The FAO’s index of cereal prices was unchanged last month, while wheat prices rose slightly due to fresh concerns about supplies from Ukraine and dry weather conditions in the U.S.. The FAO’s vegetable oil prices index declined 3.2% thanks to falls for palm, soy and sunflower seed oil prices. Dairy prices declined 2.7%. Sugar prices, however, surged 6.9% to a six-year high due to a weaker-than-expected crop in India. Meat prices were unchanged. Poultry prices weakened despite outbreaks of bird flu. Pig meat prices rose. Six countries are experiencing the most acute level of food insecurity, defined as catastrophic hunger. Those countries are Burkina Faso, Haiti, Mali, Nigeria, Somalia and South Sudan.
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