Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is down 1 cent and near 14.84. SMK is near 462.6. BOK is near 57.87. CK is unch and near 6.33. WK is down 1 cent and near 6.99. KWK is up 1 cent and near 8.31. MWK is up 1 cent and near 8.53. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. US Dollar is mixed. Gold is lower. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. Risk on?
Corn futures are waiting for new export buying of US corn and increase farmer selling. Commercials need to buy corn. Brazil and Argentina are out of the export markets. Rains could finally fall over Argentina crop areas. Central Brazil could see drier weather to plant corn. One crop scout est Brazil corn crop near 121 mmt vs USDA 125 and 91 pct of the 2nd crop planted. Same group est Argentina corn crop near 36 mmt vs USDA 40. Season to date US corn exports are still down 36 pct vs ly. TX corn planting is near 40 pct vs 30 average.
Soybean futures are also looking for China demand. Brazil soybean and soymeal export prices are lower. US domestic meal values are also lower. Increase 2023 World sunoil and RSO supplies is offering resistance to soyoil futures. One crop scout est Brazil soybean crop near 151 mmt vs USDA 153. Brazil farmer still selling soybeans. Same group est Argentina soybean crop near 26 mmt vs USDA 33. Argentina farmer increasing soybean cash sales with rains in the forecast. Argentina crush margins continue to be negative.
Wheat future are mixed with Chicago down and KC and MLS up. Russia President wants Ukraine export corridor to be extended 60 days and sanctions against Russia access to SWIFT financial messaging lifted. Putin also wants free wheat to Africa. Still dry in US HRW and wet in HRS and SRW areas. Matif wheat prices followed WK lower prices. USDA raised KS crop rating 2 o 19 oct G/E. CO down 4 to 36. Wheat futures are still hunting for new export demand.
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