Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is unch and near 13.29. SMN is near 400.1. BON is near 48.20. CN is down 5 cents and near 5.86. CZ is down 1 cents and near 5.28. WN is unch and near 6.11. KWN is down 5 cents and near 7.97. MWN is down 3 cents and near 7.85. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher and near $71. OPEC meeting this weekend. Global equity markets are higher after US Congress passed the Debt deal.
Weekly US soybean old crop export sales are est at -100 to +100 vs -45 lw and new crop 200 to 450 vs 245 lw. Weekly US soymeal sales are est near 175-500 mt vs 341 lw. US Midwest 7 day forecast is dry. 2-3 week forecast mixed with GFS normal and EU dry. N EU is dry. N China is also dry. Global 2023 sunflower and canola production higher. Argentina soybean harvest near 87 pct. Crop near 21 mmt vs USDA 27. Brazil soybean export prices remains below US. There remains concern about China economy slower than hoped. This could weigh on commodity prices.
Weekly US old crop corn export sales are est at -100 to +400 vs -75 lw and new crop 0-300 vs 245 last week. US Midwest 7 day forecast is dry. 2-3 week forecast mixed with GFS normal and EU dry. N EU is dry. Start of Brazil corn harvest offered resistance to CN. Brazil and Ukraine 2023 crops are up 10 mmt from ly. Some are now estimating Brazil crop above 130 mmt vs USDA 130. Most look for drop in demand for US corn exports. Can higher domestic use hold CN near support? Weekly US ethanol production was up 2 pct from last year but still below pace to reach USDA goal. Argentina corn harvest is near 27 pct. Some est crop closer to 32.5 mmt vs USDA 37.
Wheat prices are lower. Weekly US old crop wheat export sales are est at -100 to +100 vs -45 last week. New crop est near 200-450 mt vs 245 last week. Lack of demand for US export, lower Russia prices and higher EU supplies offers resistance. Wet US HRW and China raising concern about quality. Some est that 30 mmt of China 137 mmt crop will be feed quality. Questions about Russia, Canada, US and China crops offers support.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
