Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is up 2 cents and near 15.22. SMK is near 479.7. BOK is near 61.61. CK is up 1 cent and near 6.50. WK is down 3 cents and near 7.18. KWK is down 8 cents and near 8.27. MWK is up 1 cent and near 8.84. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is mixed. Gold, silver, coffee and cotton are lower. Copper, cocoa and sugar are higher. CFTC released some old data through Jan 31.
CRB commodity index is higher. We may have not felt the full brunt of the speed of US Fed rate hikes yet. Some feel US Central Bank may increase Fed fund rates to 5.5-6.0. China post-Covid reopen has not yet produced higher commodity demand. Fear China may offer aid to Russia raises additional concern over US and China relations.
CK is higher. Corn futures dropped on Friday on a combination of higher US Dollar, lower World feed wheat prices and bearish USDA Outlook 2023/24 numbers. USDA raised US 2023 corn acres, estimated higher trend yield, raised US carryout and lowered average farm price. Argentina weather remains dry. US export commit is 28.6 mmt vs 47.5 ly. Mexico 12.5. Japan only 2.8.
SK is higher. Soybeans are trying to hold within the 15.00-15.50 range. Some feel increase harvest of a record 2023 Brazil soybean crop will offset lower Argentina supply. Last week there was talk that Argentina crop could be as low as 30.0 mmt vs USDA 41.0. US export commit is 48.5 mmt vs 49.7 ly. China 30.0. Unknown 2.8
WK is lower. WK has dropped 60 cents. Lower Russia export prices and higher US Dollar is weighing on prices. Some feel though WN may be close to support until more is known about 2023 north hemisphere weather and crop sizes. Of all grains, wheat shows the lowest gains in 2023 supply. WN could be in a broad 7.00-8.10 range. US export commit is 16.8 mmt vs 18.0 ly.
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