Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is up 5 cents and near 15.94. SX is up 1 cent and near 14.15. SMN is near 443.3. BON is near 63.58. CK is near 7.50. CN is up 2 cents and near 7.14. CZ is down 3 cents and near 6.06. WN is up 6 cents and near 7.37. KWN is up 3 cents and near 7.07. MWN is up 6 cents and near 7.59.
Crude is lower. US Dollar is lower. Copper is higher. Lumber is limit down. Financial trades will be watching todays US CPI data. US stocks lower on inflation concerns.
US 7 day rains in south Delta. 6-10 days warm with normal rains. 8-14 warm with normal rain 93 pct ND is drought, 35 pct SD in drought. 78 pct IA dry. 67 pct US corn crop planted, 42 pct soybeans.
USDA rated the US 201 winter wheat crop 49 pct G/E vas 48 last week. 70 pct US HRS crop planted.
This week trade is all about traders evening up for USDA critical May report.
Trade est US 2020/21 corn carryout at 1,275 vs 1,352, beans 118 vs 120 and wheat 850 vs 852
Trade est US 2021 corn crop near 15,029, soybeans 4,431 and all wheat 1,912
Trade est US 2021/22 corn carryout at 1,327, soybean 133 and wheat 751.
USDA US soybean outlook yield times March acres minus forecasted demand suggest 25 carryout?
Private analyst est US 2021/22 corn carryout at 1,009, beans 108 and wheat 719. Assuming USDA outlook corn yield times March acres minus forecasted demand suggest 1,165 carryout? Key will be Brazil corn crop est, China corn imports and US 2020/21 corn and soybean demand. One crop watchers lowered Brazil corn crop to 97 mmt, raised Brazil soybean crop 1 mmt to 134. Same crop watcher estimated Argentina corn crop up 1 mmt to 46.5. Left Argentina soybean at 45.
China 2021 hog herd up 19 pct, pork production up 20 pct to 49.3 mmt, Hog prices down 7 pct Monday.
Matif rapeseed futured down sharply, Canada canola futures were down the expanded daily limit.
EU wheat exports are estimated near 22.8 mmt , down 24 pct from 30 mmt last year. Good weekend rains across EU and Black Sea offered resistance to EU wheat prices and US futures.
On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 20,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 35,000 Corn; sold 7,000 Soybeans; net bought 1,000 Soymeal, and; sold 6,000 in Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 367,000 Corn; long 197,000 Soybeans; long 55,000 Soymeal, and; net long 87,000 Soyoil.
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